A Look Back at the Bills Offense vs. Chiefs Defense in Week 11

This Sunday will mark the 4th time in 5 years that the Bills and Chiefs have played each other twice in a season. They’re almost like divisional opponents and very familiar with one another.

That means it will be tough for one team to trick the other. This game will instead come down to execution and someone making a play in a critical moment.

That’s exactly what happened in Week 11 earlier this season. The outcome wasn’t decided until the final minutes (of course). Neither team dominated or tore the other up for a ton of yards.

But the Bills were just a little better than the Chiefs in those key situations. For instance, Buffalo converted 12 of 19 third and fourth-down attempts (which included two first downs via penalty). And that’s ultimately where this game was won.

The Chiefs defense actually did a great job in general of mixing up their looks on these key downs. On 14 called passes, they played man coverage 6 times and zone 8 times. They also blitzed on slightly more than half of those 14 drop backs. On 4 snaps, they incorporated a spy.

Interestingly enough, the Bills ate them up when they played man coverage, converting on all but one attempt. They did it primarily with stacks and bunches (and motion to bunches) that either created traffic or confused K.C.’s man-match responsibilities:

It was in zone coverage that the Chiefs had better luck, stopping the Bills on 5 of 7 tries before the final 4th down attempt of the game (more on that one in a bit).

The zone coverage took away those quick answers for Allen. That allowed the pass rush to impact the play or otherwise led to incompletions and throwaways:

It’s a small sample size, sure, but this leads me to believe that Chiefs Defensive Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo might lean more on zone coverage in these key situations on Sunday. Although that’s not a silver bullet against Josh Allen either.

Which brings us to the final 4th down of that Week 11 game, a 4th-and-2.

The Bills led 23-21 with just 2:27 remaining. This play would likely determine the outcome. Either the Bills could ice it or they’d have to give the ball back to Patrick Mahomes, who would be in good position to drive down the field for the game-winning score.

To that point in the game, the Chiefs had played man coverage on every other 3rd or 4th-down pass attempt with 6 or less yards to go. And 4th-and-2 is generally a man-coverage situation across the NFL.

So Bills Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady dialed up one of his best man-beaters.