Assessing the NFL Quarterback Carousel

A quick look at the potential impact of Geno Smith, Sam Darnold, Justin Fields, and Daniel Jones on their new teams

The first week of free agency saw 3 teams acquire a new starting quarterback for the 2025 season. One more will compete for the starting job in his new location, and there are still a few others out there waiting to be signed.

Let’s take a quick look at the impact of each of these moves so far.

Geno Smith - Raiders

The last couple of years for the Raiders have not been what anyone would consider stable at the quarterback position. They quickly solved that issue by trading for former Seahawks QB Geno Smith before the start of free agency.

Smith resurrected his career in Seattle, finishing as the 15th-highest rated passer in the NFL across the last 3 seasons. He played at a high enough and consistent enough level to give the Raiders some optimism heading into 2025.

Smith seems like a quarterback that Al Davis would love since he is a really good downfield passer. PFF graded him as a top-10 quarterback on throws 20 yards or more from the line of scrimmage in each of the last 3 seasons. He was in the top-5 twice.

With throws like this, you can understand why:

Decision-making lapses and being just a beat slow with everything he does (footwork, processing, throwing motion) keep him from being an upper-echelon quarterback. But Geno’s got more than enough to help make the Raiders competitive this season.

He also gives the Raiders flexibility in this year’s Draft. They can still take a quarterback with the 6th overall pick and have him sit for a year behind a veteran who’s seen it all.

The Raiders also don’t have to be overly aggressive if they aren’t in love with a young quarterback or can’t get their hands on one. They can build up a decent team around Smith and have him be the guy for the next 2-3 years, pushing the “quarterback of the future” discussion to 2026 or beyond.

Sam Darnold - Seahawks

The Geno Smith trade set off a domino effect in free agency. Seattle pivoted to Sam Darnold, who is almost 7 years Smith’s junior.

Getting younger at the position certainly had to factor into Seattle’s thinking. Another consideration is that Darnold thrived with the Vikings in Kevin O’Connell’s offense, which has a similar style and approach to the offense that new Seahawks OC Klint Kubiak brings to town.

I don’t think it’s out of the question to believe that Darnold can continue to perform at a level close to what he did last season. However, it’s hard not to conclude that 2024 was his absolute peak considering how great the situation in Minnesota is for a quarterback.

I recently did a deep dive into Darnold’s break-out season with the Vikings, examining how he improved from earlier in his career as well as where he still has issues (check it out below!). He is unquestionably a much better player now, but my concern is that his last two games against the Lions and Rams showed that the old Darnold is still lurking somewhere close to the surface.

Justin Fields - Jets

Justin Fields’ talent is undeniable. He’s got a big arm and is one of the best playmakers at the position with his legs. He rushed for 1,143 yards in 15 games two years ago, the second most in a season by a quarterback in NFL history!

Neither the Bears or the Steelers became believers in him as a long-term solution, though, and the biggest reason for that is likely the lack of precision to Fields’ game. He doesn’t see the field well, play with any timing or rhythm, and his ball placement is inconsistent.

Sure, he can create big plays out of nothing, but he also doesn’t always take the completions that are created by the scheme and keep the offense on schedule. That’s what leads to his uneven performance.

I wrote about this in detail last offseason:

In his 6 starts with the Steelers, I didn’t see much difference from his time in Chicago.

Maybe new Jets Offensive Coordinator Tanner Engstrand (the former passing game coordinator for the Lions) will be able to get more out of Fields as a passer? Or perhaps the better approach will be to take advantage of Fields’ unique skillset and lean on his legs?

Regardless of the approach, there have to be significant improvements in Fields’ abilities as a passer in order for him to become the future for this team. The good news for the Jets is that they aren’t stuck with him long term if things don’t work out in 2025.

Daniel Jones - Colts

Jones probably doesn’t move the needle much for Colts fans. However, he wasn’t brought in just to back up Anthony Richardson. He will compete for the starting job, as the Colts appear to be interested in lighting a fire under Richardson’s butt or going in a different direction at the position in a pivotal year for head coach Shane Steichen.

Jones is similar to Justin Fields in that he brings a lot of talent to the table. He isn’t as dynamic of a runner as Fields, but he’s got some good speed. He even rushed for 708 yards during the 2022 season.

Not to mention, Jones has had some outstanding performances sprinkled in throughout his career. For instance, he was lights out during his first playoff start:

Jones became the first quarterback ever to throw for 300+ yards, 2+ TDs, and rush for 70+ yards in a playoff game.

But a few great performances here and there doesn’t make a great quarterback. He still has a long way to go to claim the starting job, let alone be an effective player if he does start.

Injuries and inconsistency have defined the first 6 years of Jones’ career. You can make the argument that an improved cast around him in Indianapolis, particularly up front, could help unlock his game.

But it’s his traits that have led to the inconsistency. He has a tendency to get stuck on receivers, make questionable decisions, and sometimes leaves potential big plays on the field by fleeing the pocket too early.

Shane Steichen does have a history of devising systems that work for mobile QBs. He did so with Jalen Hurts in 2022 with the Eagles. And despite the frustrations with Richardson, he’s had his moments with the young Colts quarterback as well.

Maybe he could figure something out with Jones too?

Aaron Rodgers - Unknown

I’ll have more to say about Rodgers’ fit on a new team once the move actually happens. All I’ll say for right now is that taking a chance on him makes a lot of sense for each of the teams interested (Vikings, Steelers, Giants).

Here’s my breakdown of Rodgers’ 2024 season and what to expect in 2025:

Be sure to check back in once we find out where Rodgers ends up.