Bills Offense Won Cat-and-Mouse Game Against Dolphins Defense

For the second time this season, the Bills and Dolphins played a close and exciting game where the winner wasn’t determined until the final play. While that provided plenty of drama and entertainment, it was the moves and counter-moves between Buffalo’s offense and Miami’s defense that made for an even more interesting game within the game.

Entering Week 15, one thing was clear; the Bills offense could expect lots of man coverage and blitzes from Miami’s aggressive defense. In the first half, though, that wasn’t quite the case. Outside of the Red Zone, the Dolphins predominantly played zone coverage (72.2% of pass plays) and rarely blitzed.

Whether this was an attempt to throw off the Bills and Josh Allen, to keep him from scrambling, or to prevent big plays, it didn’t really work. Allen picked Miami apart, completing 75% of his passes against zone for more than 11 yards per attempt:

Allen has such a strong arm, great ball placement, and an improved sense of timing on downfield throws that he can take advantage of any daylight he sees in zone. Miami recognized this, and after allowing three straight touchdown drives to end the first half, they adjusted their approach. In the second half, they flipped the script and played man coverage on 75% of Buffalo’s called passes.

I wouldn’t say that the Bills had no success against man on Saturday. In fact, each of Allen’s 4 touchdown passes came against some form of man coverage (all were in the red zone). But the decision to play a more aggressive style of defense with press-man at the center of it did help Miami disrupt the timing of the Bills’ passing game. Buffalo struggled to move the ball consistently in the second half, only totaling 43 yards on 15 called passes against man coverage (less than 3 yards per play).

One really interesting way they attacked Allen was with a spy coming from distance. This 3rd-and-9 in the third quarter was a great example. First, notice the look. The Dolphins appeared to be playing cover-1 and rushing 4. And it appeared that safety Jevon Holland would be dropping into the middle of the field as the hole defender to take away any in-breaking routes:

With all 3 routes attacking the intermediate-middle area of the field, and Holland in that area to help out, Allen didn’t seem to want to wait underneath the shadow of his own goalpost to give his receivers a chance to win. He saw daylight to his right and thought he had an opening to escape:

But Holland wasn’t staying in the middle of the field as the hole defender. He was actually spying Allen, and was ready to break on his first movement out of the pocket:

Allen’s open running lane closed quickly, and the result was a stop for Miami deep in Bills territory:

For all intents and purposes, Holland was able to fulfill multiple roles on one play, appearing as a hole defender initially (taking away those inside routes) while also helping to contain Allen’s running ability. Not to mention, using a safety in this role instead of a linebacker helped match Allen’s athleticism. The Dolphins opted to use this look several times, particularly in the second half, instead of using that extra defender in the pass rush.

With the Bills struggling to get anything going against Miami’s tight man coverage, they needed to find some way to counter. Offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey turned to Allen’s legs instead of his arm. With just over 10 minutes remaining in the game, Buffalo spread the Dolphins out and ran a designed quarterback draw up the middle for 44 yards:

With the Dolphins playing man coverage across the board, Buffalo was able to take its two receivers closest to the design of play (Gabe Davis to Allen’s left and Dawson Knox, the inside #3 to his right) and run off their defenders at the snap. That left few Dolphins in the middle of the field to respond to Allen. A perfect playcall at that moment.

Four plays later, the Bills found another way to attack Miami’s man coverage for a touchdown. First, they aligned in a 3x1 formation with Stefon Diggs to the outside of the 3-receiver side. Let’s focus on the route combination between Diggs and Isaiah McKenzie first:

The hope was that McKenzie’s route would create a natural rub where both his and Diggs’ defenders would collide. Or at very least, Diggs’ man would have to fight through traffic to stay with him, creating separation for an easy touchdown inside.

The Dolphins anticipated a route combination like this based on the formation and situation, and they countered by having safety Verone McKinley cheat to that side to help out on Diggs or whoever broke towards the middle:

But the Bills’ route combination to that side also included tight end Dawson Knox, who would run an out-breaking route in the back of the end zone from the #3 inside slot position. If the safety bit underneath on Diggs, Knox would be open behind him (assuming he could beat his man):

And that’s exactly what happened:

Despite Miami’s 4-on-3 advantage to that side, the Bills managed to put the extra help defender (McKinley) in conflict. They anticipated the Dolphins’ response to the formation and Diggs, and countered with a wrinkle to attack the resulting void in coverage. Great stuff by offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. Not to mention, that was a hell of a throw by Allen in the face of a collapsing pocket. Quick processing and precise ball placement - two traits that have been an increasing part of his game ever since 2020.

The weather provided yet another factor in this cat-and-mouse game. With the snow falling down rapidly late in the 4th quarter and the field becoming more slippery, the Dolphins went back to zone at the start of Buffalo’s game-winning drive. The idea was to not risk giving up a big play from a defender slipping on the snowy turf in man coverage. Again, Allen took advantage:

That’s a pretty amazing throw in the snow backed up in your own end zone. After another 15-yard completion vs. zone two plays later, the Dolphins hardened and went back to playing man. The Bills countered with multiple man-beating route combinations that helped them convert two pivotal 3rd-and-short situations.

The first was a mesh concept on 3rd-and-3 where dual crossing routes created traffic for Stefon Diggs’ man to fight through:

The second was a switch-release 2-man-route combination on 3rd-and-2 that again created traffic for the intended receiver’s defender to fight through:

The Bills would pound the rock the rest of the way and use a 21-yard Pass Interference penalty to get them into position to kick the game-winning field goal as time expired.

This was a great game start to finish, and Josh Allen showed why there isn’t a player more valuable to his team than he is. The offense would stop in its tracks without him. That said, Ken Dorsey had a great plan for attacking and reacting to Miami.

Let’s hope these two teams see each other again in January.