Can Trevor Lawrence Have a Year 2 Like Joe Burrow?

The hope in Jacksonville is that Trevor Lawrence will be able to replicate the success Joe Burrow had in his Sophomore NFL season. But while both quarterbacks are former National Champions and #1 overall picks, the similarities end there.

Burrow was a more polished quarterback entering the league than Lawrence was. This stood out during his 2020 rookie season. He showed the ability to consistently make accurate downfield throws out of collapsing pockets with bodies around him. His anticipation skills often helped negate the pass rush and turned covered receivers into open ones. He could mask many of the Bengals’ vulnerabilities on offense. That’s why Nick wrote last offseason that Burrow had championship traits. And that’s why Burrow would eventually be able to lead the Bengals to the Super Bowl in his second season despite an offensive line that allowed the 3rd-most sacks in the NFL.

While Lawrence is the more physically gifted quarterback, he was not able to transcend the terrible team around him during his rookie season in quite the same way. His ability to anticipate and play in the face of pressure was not at Burrow’s level. In fact, he was over-reactive to pressure at times.

This play was a great example of what we saw throughout his rookie season. Here, the Jaguars had a “Sail” route concept called with the post knocking the top off the coverage and the flat route holding the underneath coverage. That would create an opening at the intermediate level for the corner/bendback route:

The route-combo worked beautifully, creating the large window as designed. Lawrence should have started his throwing motion at this moment:

He had time and space in the pocket. However, instead of delivering the ball, he over-reacted to the one pass rusher to his right. He could have either thrown this ball flat-footed, or slid left slightly before throwing it. Instead, he drifted backwards, which allowed that pass rusher to become a factor. That led to Lawrence missing the window on the Sail route, fleeing the pocket, and then forcing a low-percentage throw on the run:

Those are the types of big plays that can’t be left on the field. This was on Lawrence.

While his handling of pressure wasn’t great during his rookie season, his vision and decision-making were even more concerning. There were enough head-scratching interceptions indicating that Lawrence had some tunnel vision at times. He didn’t always seem to account for defenders in the area of his intended receiver. Often times, he didn’t see ahead of the throw.

On this interception, the Texans would play cover-2. Lawrence would end up targeting the back-side corner route. He didn’t account for the flat cornerback who was cushioning that route:

This was pretty clearly cover-2 from the snap, which meant Lawrence should have been aware of that cornerback lurking in the area. However, he seemed to lock onto the route instead of reading the coverage and accounting for defenders in the area.