Did the Packers Play it Right With Their Davante Adams Replacement Plan?

With the exception of Davante Adams, the wide receiver and tight end positions haven’t exactly been areas of strength for the Packers in recent years. Green Bay has still been able to have success, though. That’ll happen when you have the best quarterback in the league.

Aaron Rodgers has won two MVP’s and led the Packers to a 41-12 record since 2019. And during that time, he hasn’t really struggled when Adams has been out of the lineup:

Maybe this factored into the Packers’ decision to not do whatever they could to bring Adams back (either this offseason or at some point prior). Or perhaps we should take the Packers and Adams at their word and assume that he was going to find a way to get to the Raiders, his favorite childhood team, no matter what was offered.

Regardless of why it happened, GM Brian Gutekunst had his work cut out for him in replacing Adams (and Green Bay’s best deep threat, Marquez Valdes-Scantling). His first move was to sign the talented but often injured Sammy Watkins. His most important move was trading up to the top of the second round and taking Christian Watson from North Dakota State. Fair or not, he’ll be the player upon which the rebuild of this receiving corps hinges.

The encouraging news for Packers fans is that Watson has off-the-charts talent. He’s 6’4” and ran a 4.36 forty-yard dash at the Combine. That matches up to his tape, where it’s clear that he can absolutely fly:

Watson isn’t just a long-strider who eats up ground, though. He also has good quickness for a receiver his size. And while he didn’t see a ton of press-man coverage at North Dakota State, when he did, he showed the ability to shake defenders at the line using that quickness:

His coaches also found Watson versatile enough to align all over the formation, including in the backfield. That’s something you also might see Matt LaFleur play with to get him matched up on slower linebackers and safeties:

At 6’4” with a good vertical and large catching radius, Watson will give Rodgers some ability to play above the defense and be a nice target on routes over the middle.

The downside to Watson’s game is that his route-running is a bit raw. Or at very least, it isn’t as advanced as the 6 receivers taken ahead of him in the first round. That doesn’t mean it can’t eventually get there, it just means he might be a work in progress.

Probably the biggest area Watson needs to improve is his ability to sell his routes. Given how much of a downfield threat he is, I would have expected to see more receptions where he got his man to turn and run to defend the deep ball, only to throttle down and run a comeback or stop route, for instance. That wasn’t quite the case.

The below example was actually a completion to Watson. However, you can see that there wasn’t much separation. It took a perfect throw to complete this pass:

Watson didn’t threaten the vertical route enough to force the cornerback responsible for him into a full sprint before breaking off his route. Instead, his body language suggested early in his stem that he was getting ready to stop, making it easier for his man to stay with him. That’s something NFL cornerbacks will eat up.

Another issue with some of Watson’s route-running at North Dakota State was that he didn’t really accelerate away from defenders out of his break. He’d settle for too long at the top of his stem, giving defenders the opportunity to either catch up or stay with him.

On this example, you can see that the corner responsible for Watson in man coverage was not only ready to sit on his route at the top of his stem (unafraid of getting beat deep), but he was also able to stick with him easily out of his break:

There were other routes against soft coverage where similar problems surfaced. On the below example, watch how Watson’s man was absolutely unafraid of getting beat deep and ended up sitting right at the top of his stem. Then he was easily able to break inside and basically run Watson’s route for him:

There were other issues with Watson’s route-running (for instance, false steps out of his stance, the inability to consistently get defenders off their mark in zone coverage, etc.). Watson should immediately be a deep threat in the NFL, but he’ll need to improve his ability to win on intermediate and underneath routes.

That can be coached, though. 6’4” with 4.36 speed can’t be. Which is why the Packers took him. I’m excited to see what Watson can be with Rodgers throwing to him.

That said, don’t expect him to replace Davante Adams 1-to-1. He’ll add some components that Adams did and others that Adams couldn’t. The same is true for Sammy Watkins. Allen Lazard, Amari Rodgers, and Randall Cobb will add other elements too since more opportunities are likely coming their way in 2022.

So did the Packers play this right? Entering the draft, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that they would use one of their two 1st-round picks to draft a top receiver.

They didn’t, though.

By the time Green Bay was on the board with the 22nd pick, the top-6 receivers had already been taken. There probably wasn’t a 7th receiver worthy of a first round pick. So the Packers instead took two defensive players and then waited until the second round to trade up for Watson.

The biggest question that will linger is, should the Packers have traded up in the first round to take one of those top receiving prospects? Was it truly worth it not to trade up into the teens for Jameson Williams or Treylon Burks, or any of the other available receivers? Was it worth it to miss out on these polished NFL-ready talents just so you could draft an off-the-ball linebacker in Quay Walker and an interior D-lineman in Devonte Wyatt?

Don’t get me wrong, I think both are good players. Are they must-have players to be taken at the expense of trading up for a more polished wide-receiver than Watson? I’m not so sure.

Wyatt showed flashes of brilliance at Georgia, but he wasn’t necessarily a consistent force. He was also probably the third best defensive lineman on his own team.

Walker (his teammate) had lots of success behind a defensive line that had 3 first-round picks this year (including Wyatt). Which meant he was often free to roam the field unimpeded and make plays. You could also argue he wasn’t even the best linebacker on his own team. Not to mention, there were other more dynamic players available when the Packers were on the board with the 22nd pick, like edge rusher Jermaine Johnson from Florida State.

To be fair, I do like that Gutekunst has put a focus on the defensive side of the ball. Last year’s playoff game not withstanding, the defense has been a major hole for the Packers during Rodgers’ tenure, if you weren’t already aware. In his 14 years as a starter, his defenses have had just 3 top-10 scoring finishes. Only 1 of those has come in the 11 years since Green Bay last won the Super Bowl. They’ve been even worse in the playoffs. For context, Tom Brady has had a top-10 scoring defense in 17 of his 20 seasons as a starter, not to mention some great and even historical defensive performances in the playoffs.

Still, while I like Gutekunst’s focus on the defense, I will always remain skeptical about a decision-maker who wasted two draft picks to select a quarterback in the first round that few teams were clamoring for while Aaron Rodgers was still on the roster and playing at a high level.

Bottom line, Gutekunst was able to add good talent to address multiple needs. However, we won’t find out until a couple of years from now if he was able to maximize the return of his early round picks.