Texans vs. Ravens
Texans Offense vs. Ravens Defense
The Texans are 10-4 in their last 14 games started by C.J. Stroud.
The Texans live and die with their passing game. They finished 8th in net yards per pass attempt and just 29th in rushing yards per attempt. Unfortunately for them, the Ravens defense allowed the fewest net passing yards per attempt and have many different ways to approach an opponent’s passing game.
The Texans like to attack downfield (1st in % of pass attempts traveling 10 yards or more from the line of scrimmage). They generated the 4th-most pass plays of 20 yards or more this season. But the Ravens don’t give up many big plays (9th in 20+ yard completions allowed).
The Ravens defense finished the season with the most sacks in the NFL. Much of that came from their blitzes and simulated pressures (4th in sim pressure %).
The Browns didn’t provide many surprises to the Texans offense last week. They played lots of man/cover-1 as they have all season, and Houston picked them apart. The Ravens won’t be taking the same straight-forward approach. They ranked 5th in frequency of disguise used according to
(Are you following him yet? You need to be). The good news for Houston is that Stroud has been very good at recognizing and responding to coverage disguise and post-snap rotation all season.
Texans Defense vs. Ravens Offense
The Ravens had one of the best, if not the best, running games in the NFL this season. They were 1st in yards per game, 3rd in yards per rush, 3rd in % of runs gaining 4 yards, 2nd in % of negative runs, and 4th in runs of 10 yards or more. They were efficient and explosive.
The Texans defense was every bit as good against the run. They ranked 2nd in yards per rush, 2nd in % of runs allowed gaining 4 yards or more, and 2nd in % of negative runs forced. Something’s gotta give on Saturday.
The Texans defense ranked dead last in the NFL in frequency of disguise used. From Houston’s perspective, that’s somewhat concerning. It’s important that Lamar Jackson is not getting clean looks, both in the passing game and the RPO game. Maybe they’ll mix in more than they usually do on Saturday.
The Ravens like to attack downfield with their passing game and are effective in doing so. They ranked 7th in air yards per completion this season. The Texans were 26th in air yards per completion allowed. If they can’t get pressure and Jackson has a clean picture, Baltimore should have lots of success through the air.
The battle to get pressure on Jackson will be where the rubber meets the road. The Ravens were 3rd in pressure % allowed and the Texans were 5th in pressure generated (Pro-Football-Reference).
Last week, the Texans were able to pressure Joe Flacco on over 40% of snaps, which played a huge role in the game (3 sacks, 1 INT off pressure according to PFF).