What Should Derek Carr's New Team Expect From Him?

There isn’t a throw that Tom Brady can make that Derek Carr can’t.

Settle down. That doesn’t mean Carr is as good as Brady, ever has been, or ever will be. The point is, he has the physical ability to make every throw an NFL quarterback needs to and then some.

So why hasn’t Carr’s career taken off in the same way as the best signal callers in the game? What separates those upper-echelon quarterbacks from him? What should any of his suitors this offseason be wary of? And what will the team that finally signs him actually be getting at quarterback?

Carr is Capable of Playing at a Very High Level

Whoever signs Carr will undoubtedly be upgrading the quarterback position from whatever they currently have. I don’t know that he’ll become a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer, as the Jets allegedly were telling him. But a good team can absolutely win with him.

Carr has shown glimpses of greatness throughout his 9 seasons, only to be derailed by injuries or other circumstances. The early trajectory of his career showed the promise of perhaps the next great young quarterback. He threw 32 touchdown passes in his second season. He followed that up by leading the Raiders to a 12-3 record in 2016 before breaking his leg in the second-to-last game of the year.

After a few seasons of turmoil where he had to both recover from his injury and battle through offensive coordinator and head-coaching changes, Carr started to hit his stride under Jon Gruden.

He posted the highest passer rating of his career (100.8) in 2019 before exceeding that the following year (101.4). During his 4 seasons in Gruden’s system, Carr posted the 4 highest passer ratings of his career on throws to the intermediate level, where the best quarterbacks separate themselves. According to Pro Football Focus, his rating was never lower than 103.5 on such throws in any of those seasons, which is outstanding.

But then, as we all know, Gruden was fired midway through the 2021 season. Greg Olson took over play-calling duties for the remainder of the year. Carr then had to adjust to yet another system and playcaller in Josh McDaniels in 2022 (the 5th of his 9-year career).

Who knows how Carr’s first 9 years may have looked different with a little more stability around him? Or with a defense. For reference, no Raider defense finished better than 20th in points allowed during Carr’s tenure.

Needless to say, the Raiders’ lack of success does not fall solely on Carr’s shoulders.

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Great Attributes

From an attributes standpoint, Carr has everything you need in a quarterback. He has a strong arm with the ability to make tight-window throws:

He can make those throws that require touch:

He can make off-balanced throws where his feet aren’t under him, which is sometimes necessary (More on that later):

And he’s got the athleticism to make plays with his legs, both to pick up yards on the ground and to keep plays alive via the scramble:

So why hasn’t it clicked entirely for Carr? Why were the Raiders so eager to get rid of a 31-year old quarterback with all those attributes and no clear replacement plan?