Fallout from the Aaron Rodgers Injury

The Aaron Rodgers injury stinks. There are no two ways about it.

It stinks for Jets fans obviously. This was their most anticipated season with the highest expectations since 1999. It’s absolutely amazing that the exact same thing that happened then (quarterback Vinny Testaverde tearing his achilles in Week 1) happened again this season.

It stinks for the NFL. The Jets with Rodgers were the most interesting story in the league. Now we’re faced with a season that has no Rodgers, no Tom Brady, and No Peyton Manning for the first time since 1997. It’s Week 2 and people are already talking about Colin Kaepernick, Carson Wentz, and Blake Bortles for heaven’s sake. This was not supposed to be the plan for the 2023 season.

Mostly, the injury stinks for Rodgers. You could see on Monday night just how good this Jets team around the quarterback position is. This was possibly the most talented team Rodgers has ever played on and certainly was championship caliber.

This is particularly true on the defensive side of the ball. Rodgers spent 15 seasons as the Packers starting quarterback and never played with a group like this. In fact, only 3 times in those 15 seasons did his D finish in the top-10 in scoring. Two of those were early in his career in 2009 and 2010. The other was in 2019.

That 2009 defense turned out to be a paper tiger, allowing 45 points in a Wild Card Playoff loss. The 2019 team was very much the same, allowing 60 points across two playoff games, including 37 points in an NFC Championship game where the opposing quarterback only had to throw the ball 8 times.

If you want to know why Rodgers has just 1 ring, there is no bigger culprit than his defense (no, it’s not his individual performance in the playoffs). He has quite possibly gotten the least defensive support of any of the all-time great quarterbacks. Even Dan Marino had more top-10 scoring defenses to work with in his 17 seasons.

Even Patrick Mahomes has had as many top-10 scoring defenses in 5 seasons as Rodgers had in 15 years in Green Bay.

And before you go dismissing the above point by saying that Rodgers should have overcome his bad defenses if he was truly great, keep in mind that Tom Brady and Joe Montana have 11 combined Super Bowl rings. Neither quarterback won a Super Bowl without his defense finishing in the top-8 in scoring. Rodgers has had 2 such defenses (One of which was during his Super Bowl winning season).

Which is why this is so devastating for Rodgers. He was very likely to have a championship-caliber defense in 2023.

Hopefully, he’ll come back for another season (and maybe more). All signs are already pointing towards that happening. The good news for Jets fans is that this team is young and should be in tact next season should Rodgers return. He said multiple times before the injury that he didn’t expect this to be a 1-and-done deal. Hopefully the injury doesn’t change any of that.

The other good news for Rodgers and the Jets is that, if all goes according to plan, he should be ready for the start of the 2024 season. At least if we’re going off of history.

Dan Marino ruptured his achilles in October of the 1993 season when he was 32 years old. He was back for week 1 the next year and played the entire season. He’d go on to play for 6 seasons after the injury.

Vinny Testaverde ruptured his achilles in Week 1 of the 1999 season when he was almost 36 years old. He would return for Week 1 the following year and played in all 16 games that season. He would go on to play for 8 more years after the injury.

More recently, Terrell Suggs (in 2012) and Cam Akers (in 2021) returned to the field roughly 5 months after achilles surgery. Wide receiver Sterling Shepard ruptured his achilles in December of the 2021 season and was back for Week 1 the following year. Suggs, Akers, and Shepard each play positions more reliant on explosive movements with their legs than Rodgers does. So there are reasons to be optimistic.

The Jets still have a good team. They’ll hang around and be a thorn in the side of the rest of the AFC. But their Super Bowl aspirations will have to wait a year.