How the Bills Defense will Approach Mac Jones in Coverage

It appears that the temperature in Buffalo on Saturday could be in the single digits. We might even get some snow. While that might mean the Patriots will take an approach similar to what they did in Week 13, it’s hard to imagine that they’d be able to pull out another win while throwing just 3 passes. And after allowing 371 rushing yards on 73 carries across two games (5.1 yards per rush), you can bet that the Bills are going to try their best to load up against the run and force the Patriots to have to rely on Mac Jones to win.

In their Week 16 rematch in Foxborough, when the Patriots did actually have to throw the ball, the Bills did their best to try and take away underneath throws in the middle of the field in key situations. On multiple occasions, the Bills played 2-man coverage on 3rd down (man coverage underneath with 2 deep safeties):

This coverage allowed Bills defenders to stay underneath New England’s receivers since they had two safeties helping over the top. And that enabled them to stay in between those receivers and Jones:

The Bills got to 2-man in numerous ways, often disguising and rotating after the snap.

On the example below, you can see that they started in a single-high safety look and were showing blitz with safety Micah Hyde hovering near the line of scrimmage. Then they spun out into 2-man with an inverted look to one side:

Cornerback Levi Wallace became the deep-half safety to the offense’s left, and Hyde covered tight end Jonnu Smith:

Jones’ best option was a throw to the flat against tight coverage that left the Patriots short of the first down (Although they would go for it on 4th down and convert).

The Bills did other things in coverage on 3rd down to take away those underneath throws over the middle. On this play, they started in a 2-safety-shell look pre-snap, perhaps to try and make Jones think he’d see 2-man again. Then they dropped a safety into the middle to take away or jump any in-breaking routes:

From the end zone angle, you can see the clutter inside and the low-percentage throw Jones had to attempt to a receiver with little separation:

New England finished this game 1-for-10 on 3rd down.

The Patriots got themselves into a position that they didn’t want to be in against Buffalo in Week 16. That is, trailing early and often. They had to lean more on their passing game than they would have liked. Week 13 in Buffalo, on the other hand, worked out so perfectly because the game was always close. In fact, the Patriots never trailed.

New England can’t fall behind by more than one score on Saturday night. They have to keep the game in reach so they can lean on that rushing attack. Regardless, when the Patriots do throw the ball, the odds are good that the Bills are going to play similar coverages to what you saw in Week 16. Mac Jones will have to make stick throws, likely to the outside, against tight coverage in key moments.

His first playoff action will truly be a difficult challenge.