How They Match Up - Conference Championships
The best day of the football season, Championship Sunday, is here.
As we’ve been doing all postseason, we’ve provided some additional metrics and info along with our normal head-to-head “How They Match Up” comparisons below.
Remember: Green = Good, Red = Bad.
Commanders vs. Eagles
Eagles Offense vs. Commanders Defense
The Eagles ran the ball 55.8% of the time during the regular season, more than any other team in the NFL. That trend has continued in the first 2 games of the playoffs (57.6%).
The Eagles wear teams down with the run, and even if they’re stopped early, they normally break through in the second half. In fact, Saquon Barkley had 186 rushes for a staggering 1,245 yards and 6.7 yards per rush in the second halves of games during the regular season.
This is also the story of what happened when these teams first met in Week 11. The Commanders actually did a decent job against Barkley in the first half, holding him to 56 yards on 15 carries. In the second half, however, he exploded for 90 yards on 11 carries.
The Commanders have struggled to stop the run this season, ranking 30th in rushing yards allowed, 28th in yards per attempt, and 26th in plays of 10 yards or more. Last week against the Lions, another great running team, they allowed 201 rushing yards on 23 attempts (8.74 yards per rush).
The Commanders play almost all nickel and dime personnel (~90%) according to Match Quarters. So if they stop the run game it will need to be with speed and bringing extra defenders.
Washington also brought the 4th highest frequency of run blitzes during the season. They’ll need to have some clever ones dialed up to stop Barkley and that Eagles O-line.
The Eagles’ passing game has really struggled in the postseason. Jalen Hurts has thrown for 259 yards in two games and looked uncertain. With his injured knee now a concern, the Commanders would be crazy not to try and force the Eagles to have to win through the air.
For that reason, it’s hard to imagine the Commanders won’t dedicate extra men to the box to stop the run. It’s in their DNA, as they played cover-3 more than any other coverage and were 11th in the league in single-high coverage usage in general.
The Eagles saw the highest frequency of blitzes during the season according to Pro Football Reference. The Commanders defense ranked 5th in the NFL in blitz frequency.
In Jalen Hurts’ 4 career playoff wins, he hasn’t thrown for more than 154 yards. He’s thrown for 250 yards or more in each of his 3 losses.
