How They Match Up - Divisional Round
We’re onto the Divisional Round, which is generally the best weekend of the football season.
Just like last week, we’ve provided some additional metrics and info along with our normal head-to-head comparisons based on team stats.
Remember: Green = Good, Red = Bad.
Texans vs. Chiefs
Chiefs Offense vs. Texans Defense
The most critical matchup on this side of the ball is the Chiefs’ protection vs. the Texans’ pass rush. The Chiefs ranked 27th in pressure % allowed this season according to Pro-Football-Reference. Houston ranked 13th and was 4th in sacks.
The Texans also are coming off of an outstanding performance against the Chargers in the Wild Card Round where they were able to pressure Justin Herbert on a staggering 50% of his dropbacks, according to Next Gen Stats.
During the season, the Texans predominantly used 4-man rushes and blitzed on just 25.7% of pass plays, the 6th-lowest rate in the NFL according to Cody Alexander of MatchQuarters. Last Saturday against the Chargers, they flipped the script and brought pressure on 38.9% of Herbert’s drop backs. For context, that rate would be high enough to put them at 6th in the NFL in blitz frequency during the regular season. Will they do the same thing this week vs. the Chiefs?
We’ll see if the Chiefs can use their run game to calm Houston’s pass rush down. Although they haven’t been great running the ball all season (29th in yards per attempt, dead last in runs of 10 or more yards).
More likely is that the Chiefs will use their short and quick passing game to move the chains and counter the blitz. Mahomes and the Chiefs seem to do better when he is playing with good timing and getting the ball out of his hands quickly. In fact, according to Mike Sando (using data from TruMedia Sports), the Chiefs are 14-0 in the 14 fastest time-to-throw games of Mahomes’ career. They’re 6-11 in his 17 slowest (and 1-8 in his 9 slowest).
The Chiefs’ passing game in general has really been a short-passing game this season. K.C. was dead last in air yards per attempt and had the 6th fewest pass plays of 20+ yards.
When these teams played in Week 16, Mahomes completed just 3 passes that traveled more than 10 yards from the line of scrimmage.
After throwing 11 interceptions in his first 10 games, Mahomes hasn’t thrown an interception in 6 games.
Mahomes’ career playoff numbers are absurd:
15-3 W-L (& 3 Lombardi’s)
67.9 comp %
285.3 passing yards per game
41-8 TD-INT ratio
105.8 passer rating
524 rushing yards, 5 rush TD
Texans Offense vs. Chiefs Defense
The biggest area of concern for the Texans is their ability to protect. They ranked dead last in the NFL in pressure percentage this season.
The Chiefs defense, on the other hand, ranked 5th in pressure %.
Houston will try to take some pressure off their protection by running the ball like they did last week against the Chargers (34 carries, 168 yards, 1 TD).
The Chiefs run D has been better than L.A.’s this season though (7th in yards per attempt). K.C. will aim to make the Texans one-dimensional and tee off on their offensive line.
The Chiefs play split-safety coverage at the third-highest frequency in the NFL according to MatchQuarters. The Texans ranked 26th as an offense in EPA against split-safety coverage.
The Chiefs blitzed the 4th most in the NFL this season according to Pro-Football-Reference. C.J. Stroud had just an 89.6 passer rating against the blitz.
Commanders vs. Lions
