How They Match Up - Wild Card Round
The playoffs are finally here!
Below you can check out how every team matches up in the Wild Card Round based on team stats. Dig in, find the mismatches, and watch closely to see which teams exploit their opponents’ weaknesses on game day.
Remember: Green = Good, Red = Bad.
We’ve also provided some additional numbers that are specific and critical to each matchup. Enjoy!
Chargers vs. Texans
Texans Offense vs. Chargers Defense
The biggest area of concern for the Texans is their ability to protect. They ranked dead last in the NFL in pressure percentage this season.
Houston tries to compensate for that by using play-action. 30.7% of their passing yards come on play-action (the 7th highest rate in the NFL according to Pro-Football-Reference).
The Chargers D, however, has been good against play-action this year, where they rank 4th in EPA per play allowed according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
In the most critical situations, like 3rd down and red zone, the Chargers have the distinct advantage on this side of the ball. They rank 1st in red zone defense and 5th on 3rd down. The Texans, on the other hand, rank 26th and 20th respectively.
The Chargers played zone coverage 84% of the time this season, the 3rd-highest frequency of zone coverage according to
of MatchQuarters. They were 3rd best in the league in terms of EPA. The Texans offense ranked 22nd in EPA against zone coverage.
Chargers Offense vs. Texans Defense
The Chargers like to play with bigger personnel on offense (they ranked 22nd in 11 personnel usage and 5th in 21 personnel usage according to Sumer Sports). The Texans prefer to operate out of Nickel (2nd-highest rate in the NFL).
The Texans play a lot of single high coverage (60.9%, 10th in NFL).
The Chargers have been great against single high this season (10th in EPA per play). They do it with big personnel and tight formations (that get the defense into single-high). Then they like to use play-action out of it (2nd in play-action frequency according to Pro-Football-Reference). They’ll look to get Houston into those cover-3 looks on early downs and attack (like they did against the Bengals).
The Texans are effective at getting pressure on the quarterback (4th in sacks, 13th in pressure percentage). They don’t bring a ton of blitzes (27th in the NFL) but are good when they do (2nd lowest passer rating against).
Justin Herbert has been good against the blitz this season (100.5 passer rating).
A big part of the game on this side of the ball will be those early downs. Can the Chargers get Houston into looks they like and then take advantage? Or will they get into 3rd down situations where the Texans do tend to bring more pressure?
Steelers vs. Ravens
Ravens Offense vs. Steelers Defense
The Ravens offense starts with the run game. As Greg Cosell pointed out in our 1-on-1 interview, Derrick Henry has been especially effective on 1st down, and that’s set the offense up on 2nd and 3rd down. This season, he had 197 first-down rushes, which is 61% of his total carries for the season. He averaged 6.1 yards per rush on those carries with 29 runs of 10+ yards on first down alone.
You’d think because of Lamar Jackson that the Ravens would have a high percentage of their rushing yards come from scrambles. But they’re only 22nd in league in this area. That’s because of Henry as well as the designed QB run game with Lamar. 570 of his 915 yards came on designed runs according to PFF data. No other QB is within 250 yards of Jackson in designed rushing yards.
The Ravens use the least amount of 11 personnel in the NFL. They generally have 2 receivers on the field. This leads to defenses stacking the box against them. They don’t care. They’ll still run it. Over 28% of their runs this season came against stacked boxes (8 defenders or more in the box) according to Next Gen Stats. That’s the 2nd-highest rate in the league.
The Steelers play the 2nd-highest percentage of single-high in the NFL. The problem is, the Ravens are 2nd in EPA vs. single-high. They’re actually good against any shell (1st in EPA against MOFO).
The Ravens have been really good in just about every offensive category this season, passing or running. When they do pass, they throw it downfield (2nd in the NFL in intended air yards per attempt).
They’re also 6th in pass plays of 20 or more yards. But with no Zay Flowers, their ability to create big-plays through the air could be limited on Saturday. The Steelers are also top 10 in the league in limiting big pass plays.
The Ravens appear to have a huge advantage in most areas, but the wild card here is that these teams know each other so well. The Steelers understand how to play Lamar and are used to doing it. That played itself out in their first matchup this season (which the Steelers won).
Steelers Offense vs. Ravens Defense
The Ravens defense has a big advantage in the run game. They were the best run D in the NFL this season. Most offenses don’t seem to try to run it on them much. In fact, Baltimore faced the lowest run-play frequency in the NFL this season.
The Steelers will likely try to win through the air like most teams have tried to against the Ravens this season. Russell Wilson is a great deep-ball thrower, and the Steelers finished 8th in the NFL in passes of 20 yards or more this season.
The Ravens defense has been better in this area in recent weeks, but they still gave up the 3rd most 20-plus-yard passes this season. You’ll see Pittsburgh try to test them.
That said, the Steelers only had 5 total pass plays of 20 yards or more in their two games vs. the Ravens this year. That speaks to how familiarity plays a big role between these two teams.
The Ravens don’t blitz a ton, but when they do, it’s often a simulated pressure (36.1%, 4th highest frequency in the NFL according to Match Quarters). Bringing pressure with 4 and not sacrificing men in coverage is the ticket for this defense.
Broncos vs. Bills
Bills Offense vs. Broncos Defense
This side of the ball is more evenly matched than most would think. Or at least it is when you look at them head-to-head in the above table.
The Broncos do a great job of generating turnovers (7th in the NFL). But the Bills are even better at protecting the ball. Can you believe a Josh-Allen-led team had the fewest turnovers in the NFL this season? That’s been such a game changer for the Bills.
The Broncos do a lot on defense. They had the 3rd-highest blitz frequency in the NFL this season (Match Quarters). That contributed to their ability to get pressure (2nd in pressure %) and sacks (most in the NFL).
To calm things down with the Broncos’ scheme, you’ll likely see the Bills do a few things:
Run the ball - They had the 5th-highest run frequency in the NFL. Their play selection was almost 50-50.
Use big personnel - The Bills played more snaps with 6 offensive linemen than any other team in the NFL. Getting bigger personnel on the field gets defenses out of their sub-packages and limits what they can do schematically.
Use motion to identify coverage and blitzes - The Bills were first in the NFL in frequency of motion on pass plays according to NFL Next Gen Stats. Motion is, of course, a great way to get an indicator of what the defense is doing pre-snap.
Lean on Allen vs. the blitz - He has a 114.3 passer rating against the blitz this season.
Broncos Offense vs. Bills Defense
This side of the ball is about how much support the Broncos can give to Bo Nix.
The Bills use lots of disguise (3rd most in the NFL) and likely will continue to do so to make life difficult for a rookie quarterback making his first playoff start.
The Bills’ disguise and coverage mix were big reasons why they were 3rd in the NFL in takeaways.
Regardless of what they see from the Bills, Denver will have to protect Nix as they have all season. They finished the year 2nd in pressure % and sack % allowed.
Look for Nix to lean on his legs in his first playoff start. 19% of the Broncos’ rushing yards this season have come on scrambles, the 4th-highest rate in the NFL.
Denver would certainly like to be able to run the ball effectively against a Bills defense that has struggled to defend the run (19th in yds per rush, 24th in runs of 10 yards or more allowed).
The screen game will have to be a factor to help Nix out as well. The Broncos had one of best screen games in NFL this season. They were 3rd in screen frequency and had the 2nd most touchdowns off of screens.