Is Malik Willis Worth a 1st-Round Pick?

It’s an underwhelming year for quarterback prospects in the NFL Draft. There is no consensus #1 and projections for the amount of quarterbacks taken in the first round have ranged from 0 to as many as 5. Projections for Liberty QB Malik Willis fit that profile as well, with some believing he could be taken by the Lions with the #2 overall pick, and some believing he won’t be taken in the first round at all.

I can’t tell you exactly what will happen. What I can tell you is that the team that takes Willis will be doing so based on his potential and the hope that he can refine his game substantially in the NFL. Because as it stands right now, he might have some dynamic physical abilities, but his game does not showcase the subtle traits needed to play the position with consistency at the next level.

Vision and Coverage Recognition

This area is my biggest concern with Willis. His ability to quickly recognize and react to coverage is inconsistent. And there were some egregious examples of Willis not seeing defenders ahead of the throw during his time at Liberty, as shown here:

On this next play, the defense used some post-snap disguise to get Willis. The boundary cornerback at the top of the screen appeared to be playing off initially but ended up sitting in the flat post-snap. The safety to his side raced over top of him. Willis didn’t recognize it, though, and threw this ball as if the flat-corner wasn’t there:

A disguise, yes. But not an uncommon or especially complex one, especially in the NFL. Had Willis been eyeing the safeties after the snap, that coverage would have been more easily recognizable.

There were even more examples of Willis not seeing or anticipating open receivers. The below play came with about 3 minutes and 40 seconds remaining in the 4th quarter of a tie game against Syracuse.

First, notice how all defenders were within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage at the snap and the middle of the field appeared to be wide open:

That should have raised some red flags for Willis. This was a cover-0 blitz look. And that’s exactly what it ended up being:

With the middle of the field wide open, Liberty had the perfect route called - a post out of the slot to Willis’ right. Willis should have been able to easily confirm the coverage post-snap and then hit his receiver. The defensive back covering the post even turned his hips to the outside, leaving the middle of the field that much more open:

This screenshot was the point where Willis should have at least started to get rid of this ball. But he didn’t, and the results were disastrous:

That’s one of those plays where better recognition skills would have led to Willis doing whatever he could to get the ball to the post route. Whether that meant speeding up or abandoning the play-fake, continuing to drop and throwing off his back foot, or releasing the ball just a split-second earlier than he’d ideally like to, Willis should have been able to lay that ball out over the middle of the field and let his receiver go get it. The result here was a sack fumble, setting up Syracuse’s game-winning field goal as time expired.

That’s the type of read and throw you have to be able to make as an NFL quarterback. For what it’s worth, this was an almost identical situation to the play Matthew Stafford made that sent the Rams to the NFC Championship Game last season:

As I mentioned, the example against Syracuse above wasn’t the only big play Willis left on the field. Unfortunately, it was a consistent theme throughout his tape. Focus on the seam route here. And then notice how this missed TD was compounded by a terrible decision off of the scramble:

A decision like that is never okay for a quarterback to make (except for in truly desperate situations). This was a first down in the middle of the second quarter. Throw the ball away and live to play another down.

Pocket Presence

Another area of concern with Willis is his ability to navigate the pocket while still maintaining a downfield focus.

Too often, he’s frenetic when he moves within the pocket. Instead of calmly sliding to avoid pressure while keeping his eyes downfield, he either breaks down and loses his throwing base or flees the pocket too early altogether. Willis has a tendency to want to lean on his legs and athleticism if the route concept isn’t clearly defined and open early in the play. That again leads to open receivers being missed and potential big plays being left on the field.

Just look at this example. The design was to use play-action to suck up the linebackers at the second level, creating an opening for the dig route coming from the top of the screen behind them. And that’s exactly what happened. Except Willis didn’t throw it:

Willis broke down in the pocket, moving immediately and unnecessarily. He never even set his feet at the top of his drop. Even if he was concerned about the pressure coming from his right, he had the time and space to subtly slide left and get this throw off. Below is a screenshot of the point where he should have been mid-throwing-motion with the ball about to come out. Notice his throwing base:

Because of the nature of his movement in the pocket, he wasn’t in position to deliver the ball on time. These are the types of plays that have to be executed regularly at the next level. If Willis didn’t consider this throw open enough or this pocket clean enough, then he’s in for a rude awakening in the NFL.

Offensive System

The offense Willis ran in college wasn’t a pro-style full-field/progression-reading system. It was largely RPO-based with lots of quick throws and defined reads. That type of system can be utilized as part of an offense in the NFL. It can’t be the whole thing, though.

Now, was that Willis’ fault? Or was this the system Liberty wanted to run regardless of the quarterback? Was this particular offense utilized to maximize his running ability? Or was it chosen because he wasn’t capable of operating in a pro-style system?

I don’t know the answer to those questions. What I do know is that it doesn’t really matter. Regardless of the reason, Willis doesn’t have a ton of experience making full-field reads. And that means it would take some time for him to learn and master this skillset in the NFL.

Upside

In most years, I don’t think Willis would even be considered in the first round because of how raw he is. However, he does have a ton of potential and upside based on his physical traits, which are really good:

Coaches can teach a lot of aspects of the quarterback position. They can’t teach ability like you see on the above play, which is what makes Willis an attractive prospect.

He has the arm strength to attack any area of the field whether he’s on the run, off balance, or flat-footed. And despite his ball placement being erratic at times, he’s actually pretty accurate on downfield throws:

Willis’ running ability is a significant part of his game as well. He isn’t just a scrambler either. The designed running game was a core component of Liberty’s offense with Willis at the helm. He rushed for for an astounding 1,822 yards and 27 touchdowns over the last two seasons (23 games), with his yards coming from a combination of out-running or evading defenders, playing through contact near the line of scrimmage, and breaking tackles in the open field:

He doesn’t go down easily, as you could see above. Offensive coordinators see a player with that type of talent and dream about the possibilities.

The attributes displayed above can be dynamic. The question teams have to weigh, however, is whether or not Willis’ physical abilities are worth it since they are not the traits that generally lead to consistency at the NFL level.

There’s a reason you don’t see quarterbacks who can’t execute from the pocket at a high level winning Super Bowls. There’s a reason that quarterbacks who don’t really rely on their legs (like Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady, Nick Foles, Peyton Manning, Joe Flacco, and Eli Manning) have won 9 of the last 11 Super Bowls. By the way, the two quarterbacks not on that list (Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson) might be great athletes who use their legs, but both are very good from the pocket as well.

While most of those names above might seem like a high bar for comparison, that’s the measuring stick teams should be using when considering a quarterback in the first round. They’re not hoping for a long-term project or a serviceable player. They’re expecting stability and consistent high-level play at the position for 10+ years.

Willis is not that type of player as it stands right now. Can he develop into one? Absolutely. But is that type of uncertainty worth it for a first round pick?