Josh Allen Continues to Get Better
Fair warning: this is going to be a boring breakdown. If you’re looking for big plays or interesting route combinations, this is not the post for you (If you do want those types of breakdowns, access our Playbook with a Founding Member subscription).
Instead, we’re going to be talking check downs and quick, short throws. You know, the throws that no one really cares about but are instrumental in creating consistent offense?
Specifically, we’re going to talk about Josh Allen in this context. Because there’s been a shift in the way he’s been playing the quarterback position this year. And it’s paying dividends.
Not only are the Bills 7-2 and in complete control of the AFC East, but Allen also has 20 total touchdowns and just 2 interceptions on the season.
The low interception total is the more remarkable number considering no quarterback had thrown the ball to the other team more than Allen had entering 2024.
That’s true across the last two seasons, during which Allen threw the most interceptions in the NFL. It’s also true over the last three seasons. And over the last four. And the last five…and since he entered the NFL.
Any way you cut the data, he’s been at the top of the list in this category.
So what are the reasons for the change in 2024? The first is that Allen clearly has the intention of getting the ball out of his hands quicker. This approach really seemed to take hold once Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator midway through the 2023 season.
According to PFF, Allen’s average time to throw on all pass attempts during the 2022 season (under Ken Dorsey) was 2.73 seconds. During the first 10 games of the 2023 season (still under Dorsey), that number was at 2.72. But after Brady took over, that average dropped to 2.64 seconds during the back half of 2023. This year, it’s at 2.62.
That might not seem like a huge jump, but it’s the difference between having the 20th fastest time to throw in the NFL and the 29th.
By the way, we’re not talking about Allen completely transforming his game. He doesn’t need to. We’re talking about making gains around the margins in order to mitigate his weaknesses, which he certainly has done this year.
And last Sunday against the Dolphins, he showed that he can get the ball out of his hands even faster if the situation calls for it. In fact, his average time to throw against Miami was 2.38 seconds, his best of the 2024 season.
It wasn’t all just quick passes for the sake of throwing quick passes, though. The Dolphins seemed intent on taking away any downfield throws. And this more-mature version of Allen said, "Fine, I’ll just take what you’re giving me.” Then he quickly and decisively got the ball out to his receivers underneath.
In fact, 34 of his 39 passes traveled less than 10 yards from the line of scrimmage.
This speaks to the biggest reason for Allen’s success in the turnover department this year. He’s just making better decisions and letting the game come to him instead of forcing the issue. You could see it throughout the afternoon on Sunday.
On this first example, a play-action pass, watch the Dolphins drop out into soft zone, taking away the deeper routes. Allen didn’t fret, though. Instead he hit his back foot and quickly dumped it off underneath, giving his receiver time to pick up yards after the catch for the first down: