Just Double Kelce!

I’m sure that’s what many Raiders fans were yelling during Monday night’s game as the Chiefs tight end was reeling in his 4th touchdown. I definitely had the same thought while watching the live broadcast.

The thing is…the Raiders did double Kelce. Or at least they accounted for him with multiple defenders on several key 3rd downs and goal-to-go situations, including two of his four touchdowns. But what’s that great Mike Tyson saying? “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” On Monday, it was a combination of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid doing the punching.

Kansas City Won This Game on 3rd-and-Long

The Raiders did have a decent plan for slowing the Chiefs down initially, regularly disguising coverages and moving after the snap. Through the first quarter and a half, they were doing enough to keep Kansas City off balance. Vegas led 17-0 and looked to be on their way to an upset.

Then the Chiefs got going, with Andy Reid ultimately winning what was a highly entertaining cat-and-mouse game of adjustments and counter adjustments against Raiders defensive coordinator Patrick Graham.

This 3rd-and-10 with just over 9 minutes remaining in the second quarter was the play that seemed to kick Kansas City’s offense into gear. The Chiefs aligned in a 3x1 formation with Kelce as the boundary-X receiver (aka a 1x3 formation). The Raiders would start with a two-high look and rotate to Cover-1 at the snap. That meant man-to-man coverage with one safety playing deep and the other dropping down to help out on any routes inside (there are many names for this player in Cover-1, but we’ll just call him the “Help Defender”):

Reid seemed to anticipate this 3rd-down coverage and called for a route combination that was designed to put that help defender into conflict. The 3-man route combination coming from the other side of the field included a deep-over route and two other in-breaking routes. This would make it difficult for that help defender to account for each. He also had to concern himself with Kelce to the boundary:

The Raiders tried to have the best of both worlds as the help defender appeared to bluff like he would be moving into the middle of the field to take away those in-breaking routes. Then he moved towards Kelce:

Mahomes recognized it, realized there would really be no help on those in-breaking routes, and attacked:

18 yards to Marquez Valdes-Scantling and a first down. The Chiefs would get on the board that drive and make the score 17-7.

Trailing 20-10 in the third quarter and facing a 3rd-and-8, KC went back to the same formation and play, with Kelce again aligned as the boundary-X. This time, the Raiders went with a true double-team on him:

Again, it didn’t matter. With the Raiders rushing 4 and dedicating 2 to Kelce, Mahomes recognized that there would be no help defenders in the middle of the field. He hit Valdes-Scantling with another perfect pass (this time off of a scramble):

Another 3rd-and-long conversion and another drive that ended in a touchdown.

On their next drive, the Chiefs faced another 3rd-and-long and would motion to the same 1x3 formation with Kelce to the boundary. By this point, the Raiders had had enough. They weren’t going to get burned by the same play again. This time, they rushed 3 and dropped an extra man into coverage so that they could double Kelce AND have a defender help out on any in-breakers in the middle of the field:

By the way, that extra defender was defensive end Clelin Ferrell, who would end up mauling Kelce at the line.

I’m guessing Reid assumed by this point that he couldn’t win with the same play again. So he called a tendency-breaking route.