Keys to the Game for the Packers and 49ers
Back when these teams met in Week 3, Deebo Samuel was not really a part of the 49ers’ rushing attack. Through his first eight games, he only had 6 carries. He’s had 63 in his last nine, however. Samuel has averaged 6.6 yards per carry during that span and scored 8 touchdowns. He is a key piece of Kyle Shanahan’s running game now, and one that the Packers will have to be ready for.
Samuel is a perfect fit for Shanahan’s rushing attack, which is based heavily on motion and misdirection. All it takes is one false step, and Samuel has the explosiveness to make defenses pay.
Last week against Dallas, he made a significant impact whether he touched the ball or not. It started on the first run of the game. Samuel was aligned in the backfield. The initial motion by fullback Kyle Juszczyk and the toss to Samuel indicated this would be an outside run to the right:
However, Juszczyk reversed direction back to the left after the snap and Samuel cut upfield immediately. The Cowboys entire D-line got caught in the wash, a combination of reacting to the toss action and getting beat physically up front:
The 49ers again took advantage of the Cowboys’ over-pursuit later in the game for a back-breaking touchdown. This time, they used orbit motion to occupy the backside of the defense. Then Deebo showed really good patience and vision, allowing the Cowboys’ defense to flow past him before finding a cutback lane:
On this 16-yard run by Elijah Mitchell, watch the impact of Samuel’s motion across the formation and the threat of him getting the ball. Linebackers Leighton Vander Esch (#55) and Micah Parsons (#11) moved laterally at the snap in response instead of attacking the line of scrimmage. That gave left tackle Trent Williams (#71) and tight end George Kittle (#85) the ability to get up to them at the second level:
The Packers will have their hands full on Saturday. Hopefully for them, their run defense can avoid a repeat of their dismal NFC Championship Game performance from two years ago.
To read more about the 49ers’ win over the Cowboys or the profile I wrote about them for Dallas Morning News, click here (Wild Card Win Recap) and here (Profile).
The MVP vs the 49ers Defense
On the other side of the ball, we’ll have the opportunity to see two really good units square off. The Packers have the (should be) MVP under center, and the 49ers have a red hot and physical defense.
Aaron Rodgers made some absolutely spectacular throws when these two teams met in Week 3. You could make the argument that he had to be perfect and make so many special throws just to eek out a win against the 49ers, so the odds of that happening again aren’t likely. But that ignores the fact that Rodgers makes several special throws in just about every game he plays. It’s the norm for him, not the exception. We sometimes take that for granted.
Rodgers is especially aggressive whenever he sees 1-on-1 opportunities. There is always a throw to beat the coverage in 1-on-1 situations, and he took advantage often when he saw them against the 49ers last time:
Even with a safety shading to Davante Adams’ side, Rodgers viewed that throw as a 1-on-1 he could successfully target.
Here’s another example from the same drive:
Rodgers didn’t just attack when Adams had 1-on-1’s. Below you can see him target Allen Lazard running a slot fade against man-free coverage:
The 49ers don’t play a ton of man coverage in general. But that doesn’t mean the 1-on-1 opportunities won’t be there. Rodgers can easily find them in zone too. It would be a good idea for the 49ers to utilize a little more disguise so that Rodgers can’t get a quick and clear picture of where his 1-on-1’s will be. Paying special attention to Davante Adams will obviously be critical as well. If they can force Rodgers to hold onto the ball, that’s when the advantage turns in the Niners’ favor.
When these teams played in Week 3, the Packers often utilized chips to help limit the 49ers’ pass rush off the edge when they wanted to push the ball downfield. Watch tight end Josiah Deguara (#81) on the left side of the screen here:
They used chips on both sides of the formation on this play during their final drive:
San Francisco will have to counter this approach by getting pressure inside. The 49ers can do so in multiple ways. They can stunt inside to render those chips on the outside irrelevant, like they did last week against Dallas. Watch Nick Bosa (#97) on the left side of the screen here:
They’ll also need to consistently win the 1-on-1 matchups they do get inside. Defensive tackle Arik Armstead (#91) will be a key player to watch inside in this one:
A good Buccaneers pass rush ended Green Bay’s season last year. The 49ers have what it takes up front if they can force Rodgers to hold onto the ball. This should be an outstanding game either way.
Below you can see how these teams match up on both sides of the ball:
