Matthew Stafford was the Difference Maker in Rams' NFC Championship Game Win

Last offseason, I wrote that Matthew Stafford made the Rams a Super Bowl favorite. In addition to his talent throwing the ball, one of the main reasons for my belief was his ability to complete passes when conditions weren’t perfect around him. Whether that was in the face of pressure or on throws into tight windows where the play design did not yield a gaping hole, Stafford could provide a huge addition to a Rams passing attack that relies heavily on scheme to generate yards. That quality was on display throughout the NFC Championship game.

Handling the 49ers’ Pass Rush

We knew coming into this matchup that the key to the game for the Rams would be keeping Stafford relatively clean. If they could, there would be lots of opportunities against the 49ers’ secondary. And that’s exactly how this one played out.

Stafford was kept upright for several reasons. First, L.A.’s offensive line deserves a fair share of the credit. They often won their 1-on-1 matchups and were able to handle most of San Francisco’s stunts, as you’ll see on some of the plays shown below. But often times it was Stafford’s ability to get the ball downfield with anticipation, throw with bodies around him, and even uses his legs to render the 49ers’ pass rush irrelevant.

Specifically, Stafford’s ability to do all of this in the biggest moments of the game made all the difference. The Rams would convert 11 of 18 third-down attempts, which included two touchdowns and a big play to Cooper Kupp that set up the game-winning field goal.

The Rams’ first touchdown came on the strength of an 18-play, 97-yard, 9-minute 33-second marathon of a drive. After an uneven start to the game, Stafford was able to make several big plays on 3rd down to keep the drive alive. This scramble for 14 yards on 3rd-and-10 really got the Rams going:

Not exactly John Elway’s helicopter run but good enough to mitigate the pass rush and keep the drive going. Stafford’s right arm and ability to throw with anticipation would be the traits he’d lean on for the rest of the day.

Facing a 3rd-and-6 later in the drive, Stafford delivered a perfect pass with the 49ers’ pass rush nearly collapsing the pocket around him. His ability to anticipate prevented the rush from being a factor, though:

That’s just a ridiculous throw. Look at where Kupp was in his route when Stafford had already started his throwing motion:

The end zone angle gives you a feel for the chaos taking place around Stafford:

Not many quarterbacks in the league can anticipate like that with pressure bearing down on them.

Three plays later on 3rd-and-13, the Rams got on the board. This time, they handled the pressure with a combination of Stafford’s anticipation and a bit of a quick count:

Not only did the quick count give the Rams’ O-line a split second longer to handle the 49ers’ pass rush, it also held the coverage to create an opening for Kupp.

From the sideline angle, you can see that the 49ers would spin out into cover-2 to Kupp’s side of the field. However, between the quick count and Stafford looking down the middle of the field initially, safety Jaquiski Tartt was held inside just enough to give Kupp leverage to the outside:

Stafford again got the ball out quick, throwing it prior to Kupp’s break. Below, you can see where Kupp was in his route when Stafford had just started his motion:

From the 49ers’ standpoint, the cornerback to that side (rookie Ambry Thomas) could have done a much better job of cushioning Kupp’s route, expecially considering it was 3rd-and-13. He was a bit too concerned with the flat route, especially given the down and distance. That’s a rookie-awaerness mistake, and the Rams capitalized.

The Comeback

Trailing 17-7 in the 4th quarter, the Rams were reeling. After getting the ball into the red zone with 4 Stafford completions, including a flea-flicker tight-end screen, L.A. faced a pivotal 3rd-and-1.

On this play, the Rams would align in a trips bunch to the left and run one of their staple route combinations, a post-wheel concept. This would actually be a double-post-wheel combo.

Notice how Cooper Kupp was the inside slot receiver and aligned off of the line of scrimmage. That was to ensure that he would get a free release off the line, something McVay often tries to get him.

Now consider the situation; it was 3rd-and-1. Kupp will often run option routes or quick laterally-breaking routes in situations like these. He’ll release off the line with a slight delay and stutter to give himself time to read his defender. He did the same thing here, and that got his man (K’Waun Williams) to try and undercut his route initially.

But Kupp wasn’t running a lateral route. He was running a wheel route downfield. With the deep corner and safety to that side removed by the double posts and Williams now in a trail position, Kupp would break wide open for the score:

One of the great things about McVay’s system is that he can effectively use the same route concepts over and over by just dressing them up differently with various formations and personnel alignment. That was a great playcall and design in a big spot there.

On L.A.’s next drive, Stafford lofted an ill-advised pass that should have been intercepted. I don’t necessarily believe that an interception would have ended the game like many people are suggesting. There were just under 10 minutes left, the Niners would have had the ball around their own 30-yard line, and their offense couldn’t piss a drop in the 4th quarter. This one was a long way from over. Either way, Stafford atoned for his mistake on the very next play.

Here, the Rams had Cooper Kupp running an out route from the slot with Odell Beckham Jr. running a go-route:

The 49ers matched up with what appeared to be quarters coverage to that side:

If it was indeed quarters coverage, Moseley would run with the #1 vertical (Beckham’s route). That would leave Kupp with lots of room to manuever underneath. However, a few beats into the play, Stafford saw that Moseley was sitting on Kupp’s out route, ready to jump it:

It’s tough to say for sure why Moseley was sitting on Kupp’s route. It’s possible that he was looking to take a chance and jump the route to make a big, game-changing play. It’s also possible that the 49ers were trying to bait Stafford into making that throw to Kupp. You can see that safey Jimmie Ward wasn’t getting over the top of Moseley early in the play like he would if this was cover-2 and Moseley was going to sit in the flat. Perhaps he was trying to sell quarters coverage long enough to make Stafford think Kupp would be open underneath.

Either way, Stafford recognized it, adjusted on the fly, and delivered the ball downfield to Beckham for a key 29-yard gain (plus 15 yards for a personal foul penalty):

By the way, that was another really good and difficult throw made by Stafford. He was flat-footed in the pocket and managed to fire it 40 yards downfield to the far sideline. Not many quarterbacks can do that. The Rams would go on to tie the game on that drive.

On their game-winning drive, the play that set up the go-ahead field goal again came on 3rd down. Again, it was a combination of McVay, Stafford, and Kupp doing what they do best.

McVay sent Kupp in motion to ensure a free release off the line. Kupp won his route just enough. And Stafford delivered a perfect ball into a tiny window:

Stafford’s performance wasn’t flawless on Championship Sunday. He forced one throw that led to an early interception, taking points off the board. He caught a break when Jaquiski Tartt dropped what should have been an easy interception in the 4th quarter. Aside from those two mistakes, though, he delivered in the biggest moments all day.

There are great players up and down L.A.’s roster. But make no mistake - Stafford has been the difference-maker this season. The Rams are now one win away from a Lombardi Trophy as a result.