Rough Night for Rodgers, LaFleur, and the O-Line in Offensive No-Show vs. 49ers
The 49ers stunned the Packers in Lambeau on the strength of a blocked punt for a touchdown in the 4th quarter and a terrific defensive performance. As was to be expected, the hot takes about Aaron Rodgers were immediate, absurd, entertaining, and everything in between. Apparently this loss proves once and for all that he can’t come through under pressure? Forget his Super Bowl MVP, 100.1 career playoff passer rating, and the fact that his offenses have scored the same amount of points per game in the playoffs as that guy down in Tampa.
Ridiculous over-reactions aside, Rodgers did not play well in this one. He was not sharp. He had one egregious miss at the end of the game that’ll I’ll show below. There were several other plays that he could have hit that weren’t as egregious – check downs that may have converted an additional 3rd down here or set up 3rd-and-3 instead of 3rd-and-8 there. But those are the types of plays that can make the difference in a tight, hard-hitting, low-scoring playoff game.
Here’s that 3rd down throw on Rodgers’ final pass of the game (and possibly as a Packer?). Davante Adams was at the top of the screen and would draw two defenders. Focus on Allen Lazard at the bottom:
Rodgers predetermined this throw. He knew he was going to try to hit Adams on a key 3rd-down come hell or highwater. If he connects with the wide-open Lazard instead, the Packers are in pretty good shape to eventually kick a game-winning field goal. That throw will gnaw at Rodgers for a while.
There were a few other plays throughout the night that may have led to different outcomes had Rodgers completed them. The below example was a 3rd-and-8 in the 2nd quarter. You can see that the 49ers doubled Adams at the bottom of the screen:
Randall Cobb’s route inside provided a pick on safety Jimmie Ward (#1), who had tight end Josiah Deguara in coverage. Deguara stayed in to chip at first before sneaking out into the flat:
This wasn’t the first read, but Rodgers eventually appeared to get to Deguara. He didn’t throw it, however, and the result was a sack:
Deguara likely gets the first down there with a good throw, although Jimmie Ward was closing fast so who knows if he would have made it.
On this 2nd-and-10 later in the game, Rodgers looked left initially, came all the way back to the right sideline, and then pumped like he was about to throw it to the outside. He pulled it down at the last second, but that pump ended up moving the underneath coverage. He then found Deguara late in the play for what should have been a completion, but it was dropped:
That catch has to be made. However, Rodgers could have done a better job with this throw. One reason he didn’t was that his feet broke down in the pocket as he initially looked to run in response to the pass rush before locating Deguara late.
On the very next play, a 3rd-and-10, Rodgers was again a little too over reactive to pressure. The 49ers brought a corner blitz but still only rushed 4 and rotated into Tampa-2 zone coverage behind it:
With the middle linebacker opening to the strong side and running down the middle seam in Tampa-2, a great way to attack this coverage is with an in-breaking route from the backside. That’s exactly the route Davante Adams was running here:
Rodgers had a clean pocket, and should have been able to hold this ball for a second longer to find Adams. However, he again broke down early, bailed on the play, and dumped the ball off to Jones instead:
That window looks a lot more open than it actually was because the linebacker underneath (Dre Greenlaw) vacated his zone after Rodgers dumped the ball off to Aaron Jones. I still think Rodgers would have found Adams in a sizeable window behind Greenlaw had he stayed in the pocket a second longer.
Again, many of Rodgers’ mistakes weren’t egregious, but they were certainly missed opportunities that may have impacted the outcome of the game.
The Packers Lost in the Trenches Again
Rodgers didn’t appear comfortable with that 49ers’ pass rush all night, as you could see above. But that was with good reason. San Francisco’s front-4 against the Packers’ protection was a mismatch we all knew about coming into this game. Which explains somewhat why Rodgers’ internal clock seemed to be sped up. He wasn’t going to hang in the pocket on every play and give his receivers the time to break open late.
The 49ers got enough pressure early to let him know they were there. They sacked Rodgers 3 times in the first 30 minutes, including this sack right before the half:
The cumulative effects of pressure made Rodgers less than comfortable.
We mentioned coming into this game that Arik Armstead would be someone to watch, and he didn’t disappoint. His two sacks in the second half made all the difference in the game. His first came on 3rd down of the Packers’ 4th-quarter scoring drive, forcing them to settle for a field goal. Watch him overpower right guard Lucas Patrick:
On this 3rd-and-8 right before the blocked punt, Armstead again won inside:
I’m not sure why Patrick came off of Armstead there since he appeared to be his man in this protection. It almost looked like Patrick was anticipating a stunt, but it never came. Either way, you can’t allow quick inside pressure from a defensive tackle like that on 3rd down and expect good things to happen. Armstead was a game-wrecker in the second half.
Four of the 49ers’ five sacks came on 4-man rushes. All 5 sacks of Rodgers in last year’s NFC Championship game came via 4-man rushes. That’s 9 sacks via a four-man rush (meaning no defenders sacrificed in coverage) in the Packers’ last two elimination games. That generally isn’t going to get it done in the postseason.
LaFleur’s Approach was Unimaginative
I’ve enjoyed watching Matt LaFleur implement an offense in Green Bay that has uniquely attacked the weaknesses of opposing defenses each week. There have only been a few times when it has come up short. Saturday against the 49ers was one of those times.
On multiple occasions throughout the night, we saw the 49ers either roll coverage over top of Davante Adams or straight up double-team him in certain situations:
San Francisco established early on that this would be a big part of their approach. LaFleur played right into their hands, often isolating Adams to one side or the other, making it easier for the defense to orchestrate its double-team. Personally, I would have liked to see more motion across the formation with Adams, especially in those key situations where a double-team was likely. Force the 49ers to communicate, change assignments on the fly, or at very least define the coverage pre-snap.
Perhaps there could have been some more route concepts throughout the night designed to put 49ers linebackers in conflict at the intermediate level (something you will see next week from Sean McVay and the Rams). For an offense that isn’t really dealing with a full deck at wide receiver outside of Davante Adams (you’re a diehard fan if you can name their other receivers), the offense has to utilize scheme to generate open pass catchers. LaFleur has been very good in this area since arriving in Green Bay. On Saturday, he wasn’t.
It was also puzzling to see the Packers get away from what was working on their first two drives. LaFleur showed that he clearly wanted to stretch the 49ers sideline to sideline. He used everything he could to challenge the Niners horizontally, including motion, 4x1 route combinations, outside runs, end-arounds, RPOs and boots. Openings were created underneath:
The Packers gained 102 yards on their first 15 plays (6.8 yards per play).
I don’t know why that seemed to change after Marcedes Lewis fumbled on their second drive. We saw much less of the scheme that helped them have success early. Green Bay became more static, and it appeared to be their mission to run the ball between the tackles over and over - An odd choice given the match up of their undermanned offensive line against the 49ers’ front-7 (which is really the strength of their defense).
The Packers gained just 161 yards on 39 plays after those first two drives (4.13 yards per play). That included a 75-yard reception on a scramble play, meaning it was generated outside of the design of the offense.
Maybe it was the weather conditions and the fact that the 49ers were having trouble moving the ball themselves that led to this approach. Perhaps LaFleur felt that only a turnover could allow San Francisco to truly have a chance of scoring. The Packers let the 49ers hang around, though, which is generally not a good thing to do in the playoffs.
Rodgers will take plenty of the blame for this one. But LaFleur didn’t do much to assist his QB in a game where he clearly wasn’t at his best. Add that to a horrid special teams performance, and Green Bay is out of championship contention for what could be more than just the remainder of this season.