The Magic in the Chiefs Offense Comes on 3rd Down

It sounds weird to say it, but the Chiefs really haven’t been that good on offense this season. They were 15th in the NFL in scoring, 16 in total yards, 14th in passing, and 22nd in rushing.

But the one area where they’ve been outstanding is on 3rd down. They finished the season ranked 2nd in the NFL in conversion percentage on the money down (they entered Week 18 as the #1 team but sat Patrick Mahomes, so I think it’s safe to call them the best 3rd-down offense in the league).

This is one area of this matchup that might determine the winner of Super Bowl LIX, because the Eagles defense is pretty damn good on 3rd down too (3rd in the NFL).

One key reason for this is that defensive coordinator Vic Fangio loves to deploy disguise. In fact, the Eagles used the 2nd-highest frequency of disguise in the NFL this season according to MatchQuarters.

Fangio’s calling card is starting in 2-safety looks and then moving at the snap. This makes it difficult for the offense to get into the best play at the line of scrimmage and forces the quarterback to process more post-snap.

But there’s a reason the Chiefs have the best 3rd-down offense in the NFL. Andy Reid has got plenty of methods for making the defense tip its hand pre-snap. He also provides Mahomes with lots of options post-snap.

Reid is tremendous at creating space in confined areas, whether it’s against man or zone coverage. He can stretch defenses in any direction, isolate defenders with route combos that put them into conflict, and create clearly defined reads for Mahomes, often negating the effects of a disguised look.

And then you have Mahomes’ ability to extend plays. Sometimes, he’ll do that from within the pocket and move defenders as he does. Other times, he’ll get outside of the pocket and either scramble for the first down or hold the ball until the last possible moment before finding an open receiver. This is nearly impossible to account for in coverage.

Below, I’ll take you through several examples of how the Chiefs have been able to win on 3rd down this season.

Creating Favorable Matchups vs. Zone

Andy Reid has a variety of ways of getting his playmakers in favorable matchups on 3rd down. On this first example, a 3rd-and-6 on the Chiefs’ opening drive against the Ravens in Week 1, they came out in a 1x3 formation with Travis Kelce as the boundary-X receiver and a trips bunch to the right:

Reid’s play design gave Mahomes plenty of options here. To the backside, he could take Kelce’s 1-on-1 if he loved it. To the front side, the motion and route combination would provide answers regardless of the coverage Baltimore chose to play.

Just before the snap, Rashee Rice (that could be Xavier Worthy on Sunday) motioned from the #3 inside position to the outside of the bunch: