The Patriots Offense is a Mess
The Patriots offense was supposed to be much better this season. They were supposed to take a step forward now that they had an actual offensive coordinator running things. The first 5 games of 2023 haven’t quite worked out that way, however. New England is averaging just 11 points per game, good for dead last in the NFL.
Sunday’s shutout against the Saints was a complete team effort and very much in line with what we’ve seen all season. The (banged up) offensive line was embarrassingly bad. Receivers couldn’t get open vs. man coverage. Mac Jones made two more game-changing mistakes. And Bill O’Brien’s scheme did absolutely nothing to put his players in position to succeed.
The lack of talent that the Patriots possess on offense means they have no margin for error. They have to stay on schedule to have success. They have to take the yards that are given to them. They have to avoid negative plays because they simply can’t recover from them.
On Sunday against the Saints, the Patriots failed in each of these areas.
On their first play of the game, New England ran the ball for 8 yards to set up a 2nd-and-2 from their own 14. In general, I try to stay away from criticizing individual play-calls. It’s low hanging fruit to second-guess when you have access to the results. And sometimes, good or bad play-calling is determined by talent and execution rather than the play-call itself.
That being said, I don’t love that the Patriots threw the ball on their next two plays.
The human element of the game is tough to quantify with analytics, but we all know that it plays a major role in performance. Confidence, or the lack there of, is a very real thing. Even though players do try to compartmentalize and solely execute their responsibility on a given snap, plays don’t exist in a vacuum. Games don’t exist in a vacuum.
For that reason, early and quick wins are so critical for the Patriots offense given where they stand right now. So in that situation with the ball deep in their own territory, I would have preferred they just run the ball to pick up those 2 yards and get that initial 1st down of the game under their belt.
I know the offensive line has been struggling, but on 2nd-and-2 when the defense isn’t gearing up for a short-yardage run stuff, you can fail to execute a run play perfectly and still gain 2 yards between the tackles.
But New England didn’t do that. Instead, they went with play-action and took a shot at the intermediate level that fell incomplete. Another incompletion on 3rd-and-2 led to a punt and a quick 3-and-out to start the game.
Their next drive was more on Mac Jones and the offensive line. On 2nd-and-6, the Patriots called another play-action pass. Jones had a clean pocket but never set his feet at the top of his drop:
Had Jones done so, he could have easily dumped it off to running back Rhamondre Stevenson (before he moved left with Jones) for a few yards to set up a more manageable 3rd down.
Jones was clearly anticipating pressure that wasn’t there. That’s a sign that he was still very uneasy to start this game. And with each unsuccessful play, he began pressing.
The next play, a 3rd-and-6, would end in disaster.
6 yards doesn’t seem like a lot, but given the state of this O-line, it’s enough to give the pass rush time to get home. As long as the Saints could force Mac Jones to hold onto the ball, they would have a great chance of winning the play.
So New Orleans took away the middle of the field, which is where the Patriots want to attack and need to attack to be successful. Watch how they dropped down into cover-1 (man) robber:
That took away Jones’ initial targets inside, which meant he couldn’t just hit his back foot at the top of his drop and get rid of the ball. That gave the pass rush all the time it needed:
You just can’t make that mistake if you’re Jones. Eat it. Live to play another day.
That said, his offensive line did him no favors. First, notice how New Orleans came out in a “tilted” front with 3 down-linemen to one side of the center:
This should have alerted the Patriots that a stunt was likely coming. And that’s exactly what the Saints would execute:
But left guard Atonio Mafi and left tackle Trent Brown were unable to handle it, largely because Mafi was beaten so quickly by Tanoh Kpassagnon (#92), who was the penetrator on this stunt. That gave Mafi no ability to pivot and take on the looper:
The result was near-instant pressure on Jones:
6 plays. 12 yards. No first downs. No completions on 4 pass attempts. And a pick-6. That’s not the start the Patriots were dreaming of coming off a 38-3 loss.
That said, a 7-0 deficit can be overcome. There was more than enough time to bounce back. Mac Jones did exactly that on New England’s next drive, delivering a beautiful throw to Demario Douglas for 24 yards with a pass rusher bearing down on him (again, notice Mafi get beat quickly and easily inside):