The Two Areas That Will Determine the Dolphins' Success
How things look on paper and how they actually play out during a season are often very different. Injuries, which no team can predict, play a signficant role. Few teams know this better than the Dolphins, who were two different teams last year when Tua Tagovailoa played versus when he didn’t.
Heading into 2023, health is the biggest question for the Dolphins. We’ve already seen the injury bug hit them in a hard way, sidelining Jalen Ramsey until late in the season with an MCL tear.
On offense, there aren’t many questions about the Dolphins aside from injuries. They have explosive threats in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. They have a scheme that gives defenses fits, from their excessive use of motion (See here and here) to their ability to adjust in-game. They have a quarterback with the accuracy, quick processing, and timing to run the offense at a high level. I have few concerns about the Dolphins’ ability to put points on the board.
It’s the defense that will be the unit to watch this season. Despite the talent they had on that side of the ball in 2022, the Dolphins finished among the league’s worst in too many important categories. They were bottom-10 in the NFL in points allowed, passing yards, takeaways, 3rd-down efficiency, and red zone defense.
With even a middle-of-the-pack defense to go along with that dangerous offense, they could have won the division.
Enter Vic Fangio, the Dolphins’ new DC and probably their biggest acquisition of the offseason.
Fangio is an NFL lifer with notable stints as the 49ers defensive coordinator from 2011-14, the Bears DC from 2015-18, and the Broncos head coach from 2019-21. His schemes have taken hold throughout the league as some of the best ways to stop today’s passing games.
I recently wrote about how his 2018 Bears defense shut down the high-flying Rams offense and provided a template for other teams around the league to slow down Sean McVay’s offense over the next two seasons.
Fangio’s scheme will be a substantial change from what we saw in Miami last season and during Brian Flores’ 3 years as head coach before that.
Those defenses were aggressive, attacking with lots of blitzes and man coverage. Last year under Josh Boyer, who was a holdover from Flores’ regime and the defensive coordinator since 2020, they ranked first in man coverage frequency (PFF) and 3rd in blitz frequency (Pro-Football-Reference).
Fangio, on the other hand, is known for his 2-shell based “zone” coverages. This doesn’t mean he plays a 2-shell coverage every down necessarily. Just that he predominantly starts in 2-shell looks and moves post-snap.
The zone coverages he plays (often some variation of quarters) have man-coverage principles built in, but they are not the true man coverages seen in Miami of late. Combine this with the fact that his pre-snap looks often appear similar, and you’ve got a defense that makes it difficult for offenses to get indicators or decipher the coverage post-snap. This forces the quarterback to process more after the play starts, which often slows the passing game down.
To get a feel for Fangio’s coverage preferences, go check out these charts of NFL quarters coverage usage and quarter-quarter-half / half-quarter-quarter usage put together by
at (Go read his top-notch breakdowns to learn more about defense, btw). Fangio was right around league average in quarters usage and among the league leaders in quarter-quarter-half / half-quarter-quarter during that span.Fangio’s defenses from 2018-21 have also been really good in the specific areas where Miami struggled last season. They ranked 1st in points allowed in 2018 and 3rd in 2021. They were top-10 in passing yards in both of those seasons as well.
His defenses were especially good in the red zone during that 4-year stretch, finishing in the top-5 each season, including two #1 finishes. That would make sense for a team well-versed in quarters-coverage variations. The Dolphins finished 23rd in this department last year.
A full season of edge rushers Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb should also improve the pass rush, and by extension, the effectiveness of Miami’s coverage. Remember, Chubb only played 29% of the Dolphins’ defensive snaps last year because he was traded from Denver mid-season.
Bottom line - the Dolphins probably have the best combination of talent and scheme on both sides of the ball in the division. Their success will come down to player health, an area that has already reared its ugly head, and how well they adjust to a new defensive approach.
Before we officially move ahead into this season, here’s a look back at the Dolphins’ team stats and NFL rankings from 2022:
