Through the Quarterback's Eyes: Matthew Stafford to Demarcus Robinson
Breaking Down a key 25-Yard TD Reception vs. the Vikings
Whether you believe all of the trade rumors or not, the Rams’ season kind of hung in the balance on Thursday night. A loss would have put them at 2-5 and may have led to some of their best players going on the trade block. Instead, they beat a tough Vikings team 30-20 and got their second win in 5 days.
Suddenly, the Rams are 3-4 and just a game out of first place in the NFC West.
Perhaps the biggest play of the game was Demarcus Robinson’s 25-yard touchdown reception in the 3rd quarter that gave the Rams a lead they would never relinquish. Or at least that’s how head coach Sean McVay saw it:
“I really thought […] the big play was Demarcus Robinson’s touchdown on the go ball down the far sideline. They played a man coverage, [and we] caught ‘em right there.”
Why was it such a big deal to “catch em” in man coverage? Well, despite how effective and dangerous Minnesota has been on defense this year, they haven’t been good when playing cover-1 (man-free), which is what they played on this snap.
In fact, the Vikings ranked dead last in the NFL in EPA when playing cover-1 entering Week 8, according to the great
of . (Check out his awesome weekly data download here).To be clear, Minnesota has been very good playing man out of cover-0. This is largely because they bring those intricate blitzes when playing it. Their ability to defend the pass is tied to the effectiveness of those pressure schemes more so than their pure ability to cover.
When playing cover-1, however, the Vikings don’t really blitz that much, and it exposes some of their defenders in coverage. The Rams were able to take advantage on Thursday night.
Digging into the play, this was a 2nd-and-8 from the Vikings’ 25-yard line. Matthew Stafford would say after the game that the play was “a designed little choice route inside for Cooper [Kupp].”
Stafford also said that he had a hunch they would play man (cover-1) here despite the fact that they had shown man coverage but dropped out into zone all night:
“[…] to be honest with you, something in the huddle before the snap, I’m like hey D-Rob, hey be alive on this. And just felt like we might catch man coverage. They had been doing a bunch of ‘show man, drop to zone’ the whole game trying to keep it in front of them, and I felt like they might get aggressive there.”
“D-Rob” was of course Demarcus Robinson, who was aligned on the outside to the same side as Kupp and would be running a go route:
Prior to the snap, the Rams sent wide receiver Tyler Johnson in motion across the formation. Cornerback Stephon Gilmore followed. That was a decent indicator of man coverage:
With the deep safety in the middle of the field and a man-coverage look across the board, Stafford could all but confirm that this would be cover-1:
Stafford had told Robinson to be ready in the huddle in the event Minnesota went to this look. Robinson had cornerback Shaquill Griffin in press position over him:
According to Pro Football Focus, Griffin was the 64th-ranked cornerback in the NFL in man coverage entering Week 8. Stafford clearly liked the matchup.
At the snap, he knew exactly what he had and exactly what he wanted. So he got his eyes on the deep safety right away in order to hold him:
Then he attacked the Robinson-Griffin matchup:
The Rams never looked back.
Stafford passed Dan Marino in career completions on Thursday night, moving him to 9th all time. He should end up in Canton some day. Before he does, he’s got an opportunity to add to his resume and lead his team to another NFC West title after a 1-4 start.