Week 18 Thoughts

Bills come back from the dead to win AFC East

The NFL season is looooong. Nothing is ever over until it’s actually over, and that’s especially true for the AFC East. The Bills were left for dead at 6-6, and despite a 4-game win streak entering Week 18, there was the possibility they could win the division and the #2 seed or miss the playoffs altogether. The Dolphins, on the other hand, had a strangle-hold on the AFC East all year.

Last night, everything changed.

The Bills went into Miami and took the division title for the 4th straight season. Josh Allen, despite the turnovers, was outstanding. He completed 30 of 38 passes for 359 yards and 2 touchdowns (to go along with those 3 turnovers). He also ran for 67 yards on 15 carries. He won’t win the MVP, but there isn’t a player in the league that is more valuable to his team than Allen.

Buffalo has a chance to beat anyone in the postseason if he plays well. After their rough start, the Bills amazingly will get home games in the first two rounds of the playoffs at least.

The Dolphins, on the other hand, will have to travel to Kansas City, where the temperature is expected to be near 0.

Stafford returns to Detroit

In what is the most intriguing matchup of Wild Card Weekend, Matthew Stafford returns to Detroit. It’s also a revenge game for Jared Goff, who faces the team that traded him away because they didn’t think he could get them to the next level. The Rams appeared to have made the correct decision, as Stafford led them to a Super Bowl title in his first year. But Goff has also been revitalized in Detroit under Ben Johnson.

So who has the upper hand? The Lions have the better overall team and will have a raucous crowd for their first home playoff game in 30 years. But the Rams have the better quarterback. A loss would be more demoralizing for Detroit, which means the pressure will be more on Goff and the Lions.

Jordan Love is the future in Green Bay. Justin Fields shouldn’t be in Chicago

The Packers beat the Bears 17-9 to clinch a playoff berth in Jordan Love’s first year as a starter. And there was a stark difference between the two quarterbacks on the field. Love was able to play in rhythm, get the ball out quickly when needed, keep the offense on schedule, work through his reads, and perform consistently from the pocket. Justin Fields couldn’t.

It wasn’t all Fields’ fault, but you could see the issues with his game all afternoon. He was slow to process and make decisions. And with the Packers’ plan seemingly centered on taking away his legs, he wasn’t able to adjust. Succeeding without relying on his running ability is just not something he’s shown that he can do consistently during his 3 seasons in the NFL.

You can’t pass up on C.J. Stroud and Caleb Williams in consecutive years for that.

Keep the faith, Jets fans

Jets fans, it’s time for some perspective. Yes, the year did not go as planned, specifically because you lost Aaron Rodgers 4 snaps into the season. But your team still managed to win 7 games with Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle, Trevor Siemian and probably the worst collective quarterback play in the league.

If you had gotten just the worst version of Aaron Rodgers, perhaps the 2008, 2018, or 2022 version of him, the Jets would have won at least 11 games (unless you think he wouldn’t have made a difference in those 4 games that they lost by 5, 3, 4, and 5 points). The Bills won the AFC East and the #2-seed with an 11-6 record, by the way.

All is not lost.

The one benefit to Rodgers missing the entire season is that the Jets get a higher first round pick than they would have otherwise (10th overall), and they actually get to keep it since they don’t have to give it away to Green Bay.

With that being the case, it’s not time for wholesale changes. It’s not time to start thinking about 3 years down the road. A quarterback shouldn’t even be considered with that first pick. You went out and got Rodgers to win now. Your moves should reflect that. Address the offensive line, add another receiver, and the Jets will be in the Super Bowl discussion next year.

Not to mention, there’s really no reason to believe the Jets can get it right with a first-round quarterback given their history.

Last ride for Belichick?

Speaking of perspective, Pats fans need to have some as well. The sentiment around New England for the past year (particularly in the media) has seemingly been that Belichick is lost and he was never really that good to begin with.

But championships don’t happen because of one player. They happen because of the system put in place by the head coach. That means philosophy, scheme, coaching style, culture, etc. The guy you’re kicking to the curb implemented all of that and led the Patriots to 6 Super Bowl titles. He didn’t ride anyone’s coattails. (He also has 2 other rings from his time as defensive coordinator of the New York Giants for those of you who think he’s never had success without a certain quarterback). He’s hands down the greatest head coach of all time.

The grass isn’t always greener. Change for the sake of change doesn’t always work out. Be careful what you wish for.

C.J. Stroud is the real deal

C.J. Stroud was outstanding in what was an elimination game on the road against the Colts. From his first play of the game (a 75-yard TD pass) to the final game-winning touchdown drive (where he completed all 7 of his pass attempts for 82 yards), he played with poise that you just don’t see from a rookie quarterback. I’m excited to see what this team can do in the playoffs.

Jaguars collapse

Injuries to Trevor Lawrence played a huge role, but what a disappointment this season was for the Jaguars. After starting the season 8-3 and looking like a team ready to compete with the big dogs of the AFC, they lost 5 of their final 6 games and missed the playoffs altogether.

Lawrence is a talented QB with a bright future, but needs to get better vs. pressure. During his rookie season, he was the 37th-ranked quarterback against the blitz, according to PFF. He was 18th last year. This year, he was 28th entering Week 18. After a year of improvement, we saw some regression this season. Again, injuries likely played a role, but the Jags need to get this aspect of his game squared away and soon.

Can the Eagles recover?

The Eagles started the season 10-1. They finished 1-5. Nothing looks the same as it did a year ago. And in consecutive weeks, they lost to teams that will be picking in the top-6 of the NFL Draft this year.

The good news is that they get the best matchup of the first round in the NFC - the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Philly beat the Bucs 25-11 in Week 3. That was a long time ago, though, and the Eagles were a much different team.