Dalvin Cook to the Jets
The Jets are doing exactly what they should be doing after signing a soon-to-be 40-year-old future hall-of-fame quarterback. They’re going all in.
Running back is not a position that was a dire need. Yes, there are uncertainties, particularly with Breece Hall. How quickly will he make it back? Can he carry a full load. Will he get back to being 100% of himself at all this season?
Now, the Jets don’t have to worry quite as much about those questions.
The addition of Dalvin Cook means, among other things, that Hall can take his time as he works his way back. There’s no sense in rushing him. If he does get back to full strength this season, New York will have quite the 1-2 combo.
In Cook, the Jets get a running back who still has dynamic play-making ability. He brings a career 4.7 yards-per-rush average, which is good for 16th all time among running backs with at least 1,000 carries. He is especially dangerous in space with the ability to make tacklers miss. And he can still outrun most defenders:
Cook is ideally suited for a zone running game with his ability to put his foot in the ground and go:
Last season, more than 68% of Cook’s rushing attempts were on zone running plays (which is in line with the rest of his career). That was the 6th highest frequency among running backs in the NFL, according to PFF. New offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett’s Broncos also ranked 6th in zone-run frequency on designed runs a year ago. Seems like a good fit, no?
Cook also finished last season tied for 8th-most runs of 10 yards or more. It should be noted that Breece Hall actually led all running backs in percentage of runs gaining at least 10 yards. As I mentioned, if Hall gets back to full strength, this will be quite the 1-2 punch.
The final component that Cook brings to the Jets is his ability as a receiver. He’ll do most of his damage on halfback screens and check downs, which he can easily turn into big plays. But in Cook, the Jets have a player they can also align out wide, helping Rodgers get pre-snap coverage indicators. Or conversely, he can do things like this:
Defenses are going to be forced to make some uncomfortable choices against the Jets offense this season, because they won’t be able to take everything away.
While Cook leaves a lot to be desired from a pass blocking standpoint, the hope for the Jets is that his presence in the run game and the screen game will make both elements of the offense more dangerous, which might help slow down opposing pass rushers.
Ezekiel Elliott to the Patriots
The Patriots’ decision to acquire Ezekiel Elliott doesn’t quite move the needle in the same way that Dalvin Cook does for the Jets.
It’s not that the move hurts the Pats or anything. Instead, New England is adding a solid running back with a good track record who can provide depth and spell Rhamondre Stevenson.
Throughout his career, Elliott has been versatile schematically with a 57/40 zone/gap-run ratio (PFF), so he should be able to fit right in with whatever New England asks him to do.
Elliott has good vision as well as the ability to read defenders and set up his blocks. On the below play from the 2021 season, for example, the Cowboys were running duo with two double-teams to the offense’s right:
Elliott did a great job here of running at the double team between the right guard and tackle and then setting up the safety (#21) to the play-side, helping to create the hole:
That vision and ability to sift between the tackles makes Elliott an effective short-yardage runner. Last year, for instance, he led the league in first downs gained on 3rd or 4th-and-short (1-3 yards). He also brings a decent pass-protection skillset, which certainly will help.
All of that said, the Patriots aren’t getting more speed or explosiveness on the field with Elliott (which is what the offense needs more of). Behind that Cowboys offensive line last season, just 7.32% of Elliott’s runs gained 10 yards or more, ranking him 52nd in the NFL among qualified backs.
Again, this isn’t a move that hurts the Patriots by any means. And it should help keep Stevenson fresh throughout games and late into the season. It doesn’t really change New England’s 2023 outlook, though.