What to Look for in the Dolphins-Chiefs Rematch
Since Thanksgiving, the Dolphins defense has been completely decimated. They lost their three best pass rushers (Jaelan Phillips, Bradley Chubb, and Andrew Van Ginkel) for the remainder of the season. They also lost linebacker Jerome Baker and cornerback Xavien Howard is not expected to play against the Chiefs.
The inability to get to Patrick Mahomes would spell trouble for the Dolphins, even despite the fact that the Chiefs offense has been struggling. All bets are off if Mahomes has time to throw and Andy Reid’s play-designs have a chance to break down the defense.
There were a few examples from the Week 9 matchup between these teams, a 21-14 Chiefs win, where Reid was able to dissect the Dolphins’ coverage when the pass rush wasn’t able to get home.
This was the Chiefs’ first offensive play of the game. They initially aligned with 4 receivers to one side of the formation:
However, the design would ultimately get 4 routes to the other side of the field.
First, wide receiver Justin Watson motioned across the formation right before the snap. Dolphins linebackers would kick over and the safety to that side would drop down. This was zone coverage (cover-3):
That’s exactly what the Chiefs were hoping to see against a route concept that would get 4 receivers to one side of the field.
Watson would run a post off of his motion and Rashee Rice would run a hitch-and-go. The combination looked like a post-wheel to the defense:
With running back Isiah Pacheco releasing to the flat, the 3 defenders to that side of the field would be occupied:
The other element to this play was that Patrick Mahomes would boot to the right off of play-action and the left guard would pull with him. That got 4 Dolphins defenders to either move or stay to the offense’s right:
Marquez Valdes-Scantling would run a drag-wheel route from the field side of the formation. With the Dolphins defense parted down the middle, his slow-developing route would sneak perfectly into the seam on the left where there was no one to account for him:
The result was a 21-yard completion to kick off Kansas City’s first touchdown drive:
From the end zone angle, you can see how the play-action, boot, and pulling guard all forced the defensive line to move sideways. That’s what you want to see from an opposing pass rush if you’re Mahomes. The result was a ton of time and space to throw:
In that Week 9 matchup, K.C. threw 40% of their passes on first down, including the one above. Doing so when the defense had to honor the run and pass helped slow the pass rush and give route concepts more time to break down the defense. Mahomes finished 9 of 12 for 69 yards and hit two of K.C.’s three 20-plus-yard completions on first down that day.
I’d look for the Chiefs to do something similar on early downs this Saturday night. However, the above play shows just what Reid and Mahomes can do if they have time, regardless of the down.
Miami will have to find a way to manufacture pressure despite their absence of pass rushers. I expect to see lots of simulated pressures, which they led the league in this year according to
of .On the other side of the ball, the expected near-0-degree temperatures will likely have an effect on Miami’s ability to be as efficient as they normally are in the passing game. They rely on timing and rhythm to move the ball through the air with Tua’s touch and feel being a huge part of the equation. Extremely frigid temperatures and wind will absolutely have an impact on that.
So this needs to be a big game on the ground for Miami. This is probably the area of the matchup where the Dolphins have the biggest advantage. They were 1st in rushing yards per attempt and 5th in running plays of 10 yards or more this season. KC’s #2 ranked defense has been most vulnerable on the ground (24th in yards per rush). If Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane are healthy, Miami will have to lean on them for big plays as well as steady offense.
One thing that can’t happen is for the Dolphins to find themselves in 3rd-and-long’s all night, as they did in that first matchup. In fact, they faced 3rd-and-9 or more on 8 of 12 third downs that day. You don’t want to be in those situations too often vs. Steve Spagnuolo and this defense. That’s when he likes to have fun and torment QBs.
In that first matchup, he was able to dictate to the Dolphins on multiple 3rd-and-longs and use their motion against them, as you can see on this 3rd-and-10.