Whatever metrics you choose to rely on, there is no doubt that Aaron Rodgers’ performance dropped off in 2022. He posted career lows in passer rating and QBR. He also posted the second-worst PFF grade of his career.
Some perspective is needed here, however. This drop-off was in relation to the high standard Rodgers had set during his previous 14 years as a starter. While he ranked 27th in the NFL with a 39.3 QBR last season (just above Zach Wilson at 36.5, which makes you wonder about the validity of that metric), he also managed to rank 15th in passer rating and 12th in PFF’s QB grading.
So the big question here is, what should we make of his performance last season? And what does it mean for 2023 with the Jets?
Normally, it would be concerning to see a quarterback in his late-30’s suddenly start to struggle. Is he no longer the same player? Is this a sign of the end?
But with Rodgers, that really isn’t a concern. Even in his worst season, you could still look through just about any of his games and see 3 to 5 throws like these:
The physical ability is still there, and so are the “wow!” throws we’ve seen throughout his career.
The problem last year was that there were also too many “wow!” throws for a completely different reason. Rodgers misfired to open receivers in a way that we hadn’t seen prior to 2022.
Breathe easy Jets fans. This wasn’t because of some underlying issue with his game. There’s actually a pretty good explanation or two for why his struggles occurred last year.