Wild Card Weekend by the Numbers
Browns vs. Texans
Browns Offense vs. Texans Defense
In their Week 16 matchup against the Texans, Joe Flacco attacked 1-on-1’s on the outside relentlessly, completing 16 of 23 passes for 236 yards on throws outside the numbers according to PFF.
Houston isn’t at the top of the league in single high coverage frequency, but they do still play it about 50% of the time. There will be opportunities on the outside for Flacco.
The Browns also had a ton of success on play-action in that first matchup, where Flacco went 10-15 for 209 yards and a touchdown.
The Texans were unable to sack Flacco in Week 16. However, they didn’t have Will Anderson, who will play this weekend. The Texans D finished 5th in the NFL in pressure % according to Pro-Football-Reference. The Browns Offense finished 23rd in pressure % allowed. This area of the matchup will dictate how explosive the Browns' passing game can be.
The Browns ranked just 23rd in the NFL in % of runs gaining 4 or more yards and had the highest frequency of negative runs. Houston’s defense ranked 2nd in both categories. So if they can win on early downs and get the Browns behind the chains, the game should turn in their favor. Houston finished with the 5th-best third-down defense, while Cleveland has just the 29th best third-down offense.
Browns Defense vs. Texans Offense
C.J. Stroud and the Texans Passing Game will face off against the Browns #1 passing defense (Stroud missed their Week 16 matchup).
The Texans are a downfield passing game. They led the NFL in % of passing attempts that traveled more than 10 yards from the line of scrimmage and were 2nd in intended air yards per attempt.
Houston also finished 4th in pass plays of 20 yards or more. The Browns allowed the fewest 20+ yard completions, however. Something will have to give on Saturday.
The time Stroud has to hit receivers downfield will be something to watch. The Texans finished 18th in pressure % allowed. The Browns D finished 7th, and Myles Garrett is still a beast despite his late-season slide due to injury (just 1 sack in his final 6 games).
It’s hard move the ball against the Browns defense (1st in yards per game allowed, 2nd in yards per play). The key for Houston, though, will be getting into the red zone. The Browns D finished dead last in red zone defense this season.
The Browns defense led the league in single-high coverage and specifically Cover-1 (
). The Texans should have 1-on-1 opportunities on the outside for Stroud to attack all afternoon.