Will the Raiders be Able to Slow Down the Bengals' Offense Again?

The 32-13 final score from the Bengals’ Week 11 win over the Raiders does not show how close that game really was. The score was actually 16-13 with just over 5 minutes left in the 4th quarter.

In that game, the Raiders did a good job of limiting the Bengals’ explosive passing game. Joe Burrow threw for a mere 148 yards and Cincinnati didn’t have one completion of 20 yards.

This is how Gus Bradley’s defense is meant to perform. The Raiders play lots of zone coverage designed to limit big plays. In fact, they allowed the 5th fewest completions of 20 yards or more this season.

They also had the lowest blitz frequency of any defense in the NFL according to Pro Football Reference. They don’t like to take many chances, instead opting to force offenses to score on long drives where there’s more opportunity for self-inflicted mistakes or for that front-4 to get a sack and put the offense behind the chains.

So how did Cincinnati score 32 points in their previous matchup then? Issues on the other side of the ball certainly contributed. Namely, the inability of the Raiders offense to stay on the field as well as a couple of costly turnovers in the 4th quarter.

The Bengals offense was still able to control much of the game despite the lack of passing yards, however. They did this by converting on 3rd down (8-for-16) and generating big plays on the ground.

Las Vegas stuck with their zone coverage approach, even in 3rd-and-short-to-medium situations (typically man-coverage down-and-distances). That’s their MO. They avoid leaving their cornerbacks on an island. They figured Joe Burrow wouldn’t be patient enough to take those chain-moving throws. They were wrong.

This was a 3rd-and-3. The Raiders would drop into cover-2 zone. The Bengals had a high-low route concept dialed up to attack it. Focus on the bottom of the screen where Cincinnati was able to put the flat cornerback into conflict:

Burrow peaked at the deeper route, getting the cornerback to take one false step. Then he took the shallow route at the sticks:

That seemed a little too easy for 3rd-and-short. But that’s the way the Raiders play, and often times quarterbacks won’t take that.

The below example was a 3rd-and-6 later in the game. Again, the Raiders played cover-2. Again, the Bengals attacked the flat cornerback with a high-low route concept:

This time, Burrow took the deeper corner route:

The Bengals threw the ball on 3rd-and-6 or less on 9 plays that day, converting 6 of them. The Raiders’ bet that the normally aggressive Burrow wouldn’t be patient or wouldn’t navigate those high-low matchups didn’t pay off in these situations.

That said, this approach did keep the game close for 55 minutes. The Raiders were able to keep the Bengals from pulling away with big plays to Ja’Marr Chase. For this reason, I anticipate a similar approach on Saturday because Joe Burrow will target Chase frequently if he sees him in 1-on-1 coverage. More often than not, that combination will win.

The matchup on this side of the ball that could have the biggest impact, however, will take place on the ground. Cincinnati ran the ball 38 times for 159 yards and 2 touchdowns against Vegas in Week 11. They did so in multiple ways. They controlled the line of scrimmage:

They were able to find ways to get to the outside:

And they were able to get cutback lanes off of Vegas’s over-pursuit.

That’s the trifecta of bad run defense, and it’s an area that could derail any game plan the Raiders have in mind to control the Bengals’ offense. One of Cincinnati’s weaknesses is their ability to protect (30th in Sacks). If they can avoid having to deal with defensive ends Maxx Crosby and Yannick Ngakoue on down after down by leaning on their run game, they’ll be in great shape on offense.

This is a truly interesting matchup that could go either way. You can see how these teams match up on both side of the ball below:

Bengals Offense vs. Raiders Defense

Raiders Offense vs. Bengals Defense