How They Match Up - Super Bowl LIX
After 284 games, the Super Bowl is finally here!
As we’ve done all postseason, we’ve provided some additional metrics and info along with our normal head-to-head “How They Match Up” comparisons below.
Remember: Green = Good, Red = Bad.
Chiefs vs. Eagles
Eagles Offense vs. Chiefs Defense
The Eagles offense goes through their run game. They finished 2nd in the NFL during the regular season with 179.3 rushing yards per game. They’ve averaged 227.7 during the playoffs.
Including the playoffs, Saquon Barkley has 7 touchdown runs of 60 yards or more, the most 60-yard TDs of any kind in a single season in NFL history. 3 of those have come in the playoffs.
Barkley also led the league in 10-yard runs during the regular season.
The Chiefs should be up to the task of handling Barkley on defense. They ranked 8th in rushing yards allowed, 7th in yards per attempt, and (most importantly) 4th in 10-yard runs allowed.
However, they’ve allowed an average of 148 rushing yards in two games during the postseason.
The Eagles are one of maybe two teams in the league where 3rd-and-medium (4-6 yards) is a mixed down and the run is still an option. In fact, Saquon Barkley had the most rushes (11), yards (137), touchdowns (2), and first downs (6) among running backs on 3rd-and-medium during the regular season.
The Eagles might lean on their run game in these situations to neutralize Steve Spagnuolo’s exotic blitzes. The Chiefs blitzed at the 4th-highest frequency this season according to Pro-Football-Reference. It’s a safe bet that Spagnuolo will bring pressure in key moments on Super Sunday.
Hurts did handle the blitz well this season, however, finishing with a 116.6 passer rating against it.
Because of the run game, the Eagles tend to see a lot of single-high coverage from defenses around the NFL (7th most according to
of MatchQuarters).This matches up with Jalen Hurts’ strengths as a passer. He prefers to throw the ball to the outside and is less comfortable working the middle of the field. Interestingly enough, of the 20 completions and 246 yards that he threw for in the NFC Championship Game, exactly 0 of them came on throws between the numbers 10 yards or more from the line of scrimmage.
The Chiefs played the 3rd-highest frequency of split-safety coverage this season. They ranked 31st in single-high coverage frequency. Will they break that trend to account for Barkley?
The Chiefs defense finished the season ranked 5th in pressure percentage, according to Pro-Football-Reference. The Eagles ranked 12th in pressure allowed. However, they were 2nd-to-last in sack % allowed. An indicator that a lot of their sacks are the result of Hurts holding the ball.
The red zone will be a key area of this matchup. Touchdowns turning to field goals could make all the difference. And this is where the Chiefs have a bit of an advantage. They ranked 8th in the red zone defense while the Eagles offense was 13th.
Chiefs Offense vs. Eagles Defense
The Eagles allowed the fewest 20-yard pass plays in the NFL this season. The Chiefs offense had the 6th-fewest 20-yard pass plays.
The Chiefs have morphed into a ball-control passing game. They really don’t attempt to push the ball downfield much. In fact, they ranked dead last in the NFL in average air yards per attempt and completion according to Pro-Football-Reference.
The Chiefs rely on yards after the catch (6th in the NFL in YAC/Completion). But the Eagles’ defensive style of play is built to stop YAC yards. They finished the regular season ranked 3rd in YAC/Completion allowed.
Vic Fangio’s Eagles defense relies heavily on disguising coverage out of 2-shell looks. According to MatchQuarters, they ranked 2nd in frequency of coverage disguise during the regular season
Whether they end up playing a 2-shell coverage like quarters or quarter-quarter-half (where they ranked 5th and 1st in frequency respectively) or cover-3 (which they played more than any other coverage), offenses typically don’t know what they’ll see until after the snap.
Motion is a great way to decipher a defense’s disguise, and the Chiefs use plenty of it (7th most in the NFL).
The Eagles finished 6th in takeaways this season. They also forced the 4th-most turnovers in the NFL via fumble during the regular season.
The Eagles have created 6 takeaways via forced fumbles in their three playoff games.
The Chiefs, however, finished the season with the 4th-fewest giveaways in the NFL, and Patrick Mahomes hasn’t thrown an interception in 8 straight games.
The Eagles rely on a 4-man rush to generate pressure. In fact, 41 of their 51 sacks came on 4-man rushes this season, including the playoffs.
The Eagles don’t blitz frequently (28th in the NFL). But when they do, they still try to utilize 4-man rushes in the form of simulated pressures and creepers. 37.6% of their blitzes during the regular season were simulated pressures, the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL.
The Chiefs were the best 3rd-down offense in football this season (They finished the season ranked 2nd in the NFL in conversion percentage on the money down, but they entered Week 18 as the #1 team and then sat Patrick Mahomes. So I think it’s safe to call them the best 3rd-down offense in the league).
Despite all the advantages the Eagles appear to have on paper, this is one of those areas where the Chiefs always seem to have success. And this is how they win on offense despite not putting up huge numbers. By keeping drives alive and controlling the ball.
The Eagles defense does match up well on 3rd down, however (3rd in the NFL).
It’s hard to believe the Chiefs’ run game will be a factor. They ranked 29th in yards per attempt and dead last in 10-yard runs. The Eagles defense ranked 9th and 7th respectively. Although Andy Reid does have ways to manufacture big runs in key situations.
Patrick Mahomes has put together the best postseason career in NFL history. He has a 17-3 W-L record, a 43-8 TD-INT ratio, and a 105.8 passer rating.
It sounds weird to say this since he has 3 Super Bowl MVPs, but the Super Bowl is the round where Mahomes has struggled the most in the postseason. He has an 85.2 passer rating, is averaging just 6.53 yards per attempt, and has a 7-5 TD-INT ratio.
Since it’s the Super Bowl and everyone has to make a prediction, I’ll give you mine for fun as well. Despite all the advantages the Eagles have on paper, the Chiefs are better situationally. And that will matter in what I expect to be a close game.
Final Prediction: Chiefs win 20-17 on a last-second 49-yard field goal by Harrison Butker - a similar ending to a previous Super Bowl in New Orleans for another dynasty. The NFL is cyclical.