How They Match Up - Super Bowl LVII
The more I dive into this matchup, the more it feels like the Chiefs will have to play a near-perfect game to win. The gaps between these teams aren’t huge, but Philadelphia has the advantage in more key areas. That said, there is one factor that can override any edge the Eagles have: 2-time MVP Patrick Mahomes.
Here’s how these teams match up based on team stats:
There are so many different interesting elements to this game, as there often are for any Super Bowl. But there are two key areas of the matchup that will determine the winner in this one:
1. Can the Chiefs force the Eagles into obvious passing situations?
The Eagles create such problems for defenses because their offense can attack in so many ways, particularly on early downs. When the threat of the run and pass are both in play, the defense has to account for so much more, and that often creates a numbers advantage somewhere for the Eagles. You saw it in the NFC Championship Game with Philadelphia’s use of 4x1 formations and RPOs spreading the 49ers thin and creating more advantageous fronts to run against.
So the key for the Chiefs is to get the Eagles out of situations where they are a threat to both run and throw. That can happen if Philly ends up in more 3rd-and-long situations, or if the Chiefs can get out in front by multiple scores, making the Eagles more one-dimensional.
Despite the great season Jalen Hurts has had, he hasn’t been challenged during the playoffs to win with his arm. In fact, he hasn’t had to do much through the air at all since returning from injury. Do we really know how healthy his shoulder is at this point? Kansas City’s best chance of winning is to get an answer to this question by turning the game into one where Hurts has to throw more frequently without the threat of the run.
That’s easier said than done, though. Could Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo do it with more blitzes on early downs? Will he continue his trend of playing more zone? I’m eager to see how he handles those RPOs on 1st and 2nd down.
2. Chiefs Protection vs. Eagles Pass Rush
Andy Reid can break down any coverage or defense with the best of them. If Mahomes has time to throw, he will be able to pick Philadelphia apart. Which means this side of the ball will hinge on the amount of pressure, or lack there of, the Eagles can get.
I detailed earlier this week both how the Eagles get pressure, and how the Chiefs can keep Mahomes upright using a variety of methods. The health of his ankle will likely determine both the Chiefs’ approach to the game as well as how the Eagles might choose to rush Mahomes.
If he is unable to run away from defenders or make his usual impact while scrambling to keep plays alive, you might see Philadelphia try to flush him from the pocket more frequently with stunts that target the inside. If he’s feeling close to his usual self, all bets are off. You might see more of an effort to contain Mahomes with mush rushes or even the use of a spy.
Regardless of how the Eagles attack Mahomes, they have the D-line to win using just about any approach or attacking any area. Reid will need to call a near-perfect game from a protection standpoint regardless of the health of his quarterback. And unlike two years ago in Super Bowl LV when the Chiefs were never able to get into a rhythm, Mahomes will need to give plays time to develop from the pocket instead of fleeing early, living in play-maker mode, and leaving potential big completions on the field.
We know he can succeed from the pocket. He’s done it throughout his career. He did it against the Bengals two weeks ago. If he can avoid getting into playmaker mode too early, where he sometimes gets into trouble, the Chiefs should be able to generate consistent offense.
Additional Breakdowns:
Bengals had no answer for Chris Jones
How the Chiefs can protect Mahomes vs. Philadelphia
Jalen Hurts is maturing quickly
How the Eagles Stress Defenses with 4x1 formations
How the Eagles offense creates big plays through the air
Eagles Offense vs. Giants Defense - Divisional Round Playoffs
How the Eagles picked apart the Giants defense (Week 14)
The 7 Plays From Tom Brady's Super Bowl Wins That Defined Him as a Quarterback