Ranking the Top Quarterbacks in the NFL Draft

The 2024 NFL Draft figures to have at least 4 quarterbacks selected in the first round and potentially as many as 6. It seems to be a foregone conclusion that Caleb Williams will be taken first overall by the Bears. After that, it’s anyone’s guess.

Not all NFL teams are looking for the same thing out of a quarterback. Decision-makers place different value on the various quarterback traits. Some prioritize physical talent since arm strength and athleticism can’t be taught. Some prefer quick processors and view that attribute as unteachable. This is why you’ll get such different opinions and rankings of prospects from team to team.

With that being said, below are my top-5 QB rankings. This isn’t necessarily the order I expect these quarterbacks to get selected. I am also not making decisions on behalf of a team, so I’m not viewing these players in the context of how they’ll fit into a specific system. Instead, I’m ranking them based on my rigorous study of the All-22 and who I think is most likely to be successful in the NFL, all things being equal.

1. Caleb Williams (USC)

Caleb Williams has high-level traits that any team can work with. At the top of the list is his ability to make any type of throw in every situation a quarterback can confront on a football field. This is what sets him apart from the rest of the 2024 class.

He also has an innate sense of pressure around him, and his ability to evade, buy time, and create outside of structure is outstanding. He’s drawn comparisons to Patrick Mahomes for this trait, and deservedly so.

Williams isn’t without flaws, however. For instance, I didn’t see a ton of anticipation throws in college. There wasn’t always urgency in his desire and ability to get rid of the ball quickly. I wanted to see more plays where he planted his foot in the ground at the top of his drop and got the ball out in rhythm. He prefers to hold onto the ball and sometimes tries to do too much.

All of this surely contributed to Williams getting sacked 33 times in 12 games last year (a 47-sack pace in 17 games). That would have made him one of the most sacked quarterbacks in the NFL last season, which is concerning. And keep in mind, there will be no San Jose States on Williams’ schedule in 2024.

Check out my full Caleb Williams breakdown here.

2. Jayden Daniels (LSU)

I am not 100% certain that the Commanders will take Jayden Daniels. I am 100% certain that they’d be crazy to pass on him (unless a trade offer with an absurd return comes their way).

We’re all aware of his athleticism. He ran for 1,134 yards in 12 games last season, including a 2-game span against Alabama and Florida where he rushed for 397 yards. He is a threat to score from anywhere on the field, plain and simple.

However, he’s a far more refined passer than you’d initially expect given how dynamic of a runner he is.

The comparisons to Lamar Jackson are inevitable since he and Daniels are similar in speed and have the ability to take it to the house from anywhere on the field. But I’d say Daniels is substantially ahead of where the 2-time NFL MVP was coming out of college in terms of mastering the subtleties and nuances of playing from the pocket.

Check out my full Jayden Daniels breakdown here.

To me, Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels should be the consensus #1 and #2 ranked quarterbacks of this draft. I think either could succeed in almost any situation they’re drafted into. The divide between these two and the rest of the class is distinct.

Here’s where my rankings likely start to deviate from others.

3. Michael Penix (Washington)

Despite the injury red flags, I have Penix as my #3 for several reasons.

First, He might be the best passer in this class when throwing intermediate or deep from a clean pocket. He’s also not just a one-trick pony. Penix has plenty of other critical attributes needed to play the position in some capacity, including the ability to anticipate, work through progressions (when he has time), and handle the blitz. And his athleticism is underrated (he did run a sub-4.6 40-yard dash at his pro day).

In comparison to J.J. McCarthy, his physical skills as a passer are just far superior. And he’s got enough in those secondary traits for me to believe he would be a better option.

When it comes to the Penix vs. Maye discussion, both struggle when the pocket isn’t clean. Their accuracy and decision-making drop off considerably. But when the pocket is clean and both have time and space to throw, it’s not even close; Penix is the much better passer. In fact, outside of the ability to create 2nd-reaction plays, I’m not sure Maye does anything better than Penix.

Like most quarterback prospects, Penix is not transcendent. He’ll be reliant on the system around him to work, from the scheme, to the protection, to his receivers. That said, he can execute at a higher level than most if those things are in place.

Check out my full Michael Penix breakdown here.

4. J.J. McCarthy (Michigan)

J.J. McCarthy understands how to play the position. And he did so at a high level while leading Michigan to the National Championship last season.

He functions well within the design of an offense. He gets the ball where it should go and limits turnovers. His passes come out on time. He can throw with anticipation.

On the other hand, his physical talent isn’t overwhelming. In fact, on talent alone, he shouldn’t be drafted anywhere near the top of the first round.

Ultimately, it comes down to what each team is looking for from their quarterback. Do they want a physical talent who can add value with his arm or his legs when the play doesn’t work as designed? Or do they want a quarterback who can execute the offensive system flawlessly?

The bottom line on McCarthy is that he has many of the traits needed to become a successful quarterback in the NFL. But he will need time to develop as well as help around him.

Check out my full J.J. McCarthy breakdown here.

5. Drake Maye (UNC)

It appears that Drake Maye will get drafted early. And yes, he has some really good physical skills. He’s 6’4,” has a strong arm, and has the athleticism to make plays out of nothing.

But boy are there some red flags to his game. I have questions about his ball placement, his instincts in the pocket, his processing, his lack of timing and anticipation throws, his decision-making, and his vision.

Even Maye’s biggest advocates agree that most or all of the issues I highlighted above exist. The consistent response to this has been, “Josh Allen was raw coming out of college too.” Or, “He’ll be able to improve those areas at the next level.”

My problem with these arguments is that Maye’s physical talent, while good, isn’t anywhere near the level of Josh Allen.

And when it comes to his ability to improve, it’s a lot to ask. I can’t argue that there’s a chance he’ll get better in all of the areas I mentioned above. Technically, anything is possible. But is it likely that he’ll be able to make that type of transformation?

If it was, couldn’t we make that argument for just about any quarterback prospect? Couldn’t we say, “He doesn’t do these 10 things well now, but I have faith that he will in the NFL.” If we’re just going to project that a player will completely transform himself once he gets to the NFL, then what’s the point of analyzing his college performance in the first place?

Again, there isn’t one small issue that Maye needs to address. There are core fundamental aspects of his playing style and attributes that need to improve dramatically.

Everything we’ve heard about Maye is that he’s a hard worker. I have no reason to doubt that. But I’d imagine that the issues to his game that I’m pointing out (and anyone who has watched him on film has pointed out) would have been expressed to Maye by the UNC coaching staff during his time in college. Or perhaps he would have self-scouted to see where he needed to make adjustments. If it was so easy to improve in each of these areas, as many are making it out to be, wouldn’t he already have done so?

My point is, growth in these areas isn’t going to happen overnight. Making significant strides on the bevy of issues he has will take a long time, if it happens at all. That’s a huge risk for any GM/head coach planning to take him at the top of the draft.

Check out my full Drake Maye breakdown here.