What Will The Vikings Do At Quarterback?
Perhaps the most interesting storyline of the NFL Draft is what the Minnesota Vikings will do at quarterback.
They’ve signaled their intention to trade up and snag their quarterback of the future. The question, of course, is who do they have in mind?
It appears that Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels will be taken with the first two picks and Minnesota won’t be able to find a way to get either (although, never say never). That leaves the next batch of quarterbacks (Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy, Michael Penix, Bo Nix) as the likely best options.
But the real interesting question is, what type of quarterback is head coach Kevin O’Connell looking for? Does he want the player who can execute his system flawlessly? Or would he prefer a quarterback who can’t quite operate the offense to its highest level but has the physical talent to add value when the play doesn’t work as planned?
O’Connell was the Rams Offensive Coordinator under Sean McVay from 2020-21, so the system he runs is a variation of McVay’s. And one thing is clear about this system; it can manufacture offense with just about anyone playing quarterback.
Arguably the best piece of evidence to support this is the fact that both McVay and O’Connell have brought in quarterbacks just days before a game and been able to win with them that same week.
During the 2022 season, the Rams signed Baker Mayfield just two days before their Thursday Night game against the Raiders. With barely any time to prepare, he completed 22 of 35 passes for 230 yards and a touchdown, including the game-winning score with just 9 seconds remaining.
A year later, O’Connell had a similar situation. After the Vikings traded for Joshua Dobbs on a Tuesday, they would be forced to play him that Sunday against the Falcons after their starter went down with a concussion. O’Connell famously called the plays and then broke them down or simplified them for Dobbs in his headset to help with his lack of familiarity. Not only did Dobbs complete 20 of 30 passes for 158 yards and 2 touchdowns, he also threw the game-winning score in the final seconds.
Clearly, the system (and/or coaches) can make most quarterbacks somewhat successful regardless of the circumstances. The problem is, the system itself can only take the offense so far. O’Connell was front and center to witness this with the Rams in 2020 and 2021.
L.A. had a good offense and had reached the Super Bowl in 2018. But it was clear that quarterback Jared Goff could only do so much. That’s why the Rams traded for Matthew Stafford, who could not only run the system better than Goff, but his physical talent also expanded it. The Rams would go on to win Super Bowl LVI in Stafford’s first season.
Is this experience likely to guide O’Connell’s thinking and have him lean towards the more physically gifted player?
In San Francisco, Kyle Shanahan had to confront the same question. His system (which McVay and O’Connell’s offenses stem from) creates completions with the best of them. But after getting to the Super Bowl with Jimmy Garoppolo in 2019 but falling short of a Lombardi Trophy, he decided Jimmy G could only take the 49ers so far. So San Francisco traded the farm to move up and get the more physically talented Trey Lance in 2021.
This gamble did not pay off like it did for the Rams. Injuries and the inability to effectively run Shanahan’s system led to Lance starting just 4 games before being traded to the Cowboys after two seasons.
Clearly, just having high-level physical attributes is not enough in the long term, even for these systems. The 49ers learned this, and have since returned to a quarterback in Brock Purdy who can execute the offense at a high-level despite not having overwhelming physical attributes.
Which brings us back to Kevin O’Connell and the Vikings. Obviously, a quarterback like Stafford would be the optimal choice. But a player like that, who has both the experience and savvy to run his system at a high-level as well as the physical talent to expand it, is not available.
Instead, the choice they now have reflects the age-old debate about the quarterback position. Is it better to go with the “system” quarterback with limitations? Or is it better to gamble on the physical stud who won’t execute the offense to a “T” but can add on to it with his arm or legs?
Specifically, will they target J.J. McCarthy, who is more likely to run O’Connell’s offense at a high level but not add much more than the occasional scramble? Or will they go after the more talented signal caller in Drake Maye, who might have more potential but is still very Raw with a capital “R.”
Perhaps they prefer Michael Penix, who would be able to expand the Vikings’ ability to attack downfield but also needs to refine certain aspects of his game. Or maybe they don’t trade up at all and let a player who can execute their system, like Bo Nix, come to them?
Whoever the Vikings do select is going into the ideal situation. Aside from the offensive system, they’ll get to throw to Justin Jefferson (presumably) and Jordan Addison. Not to mention, they’ll have Aaron Jones to hand the ball to. This is the best possible landing spot for any quarterback from this year’s class.