NFL Draft Day 1 Thoughts

Day 1 of the draft was filled with some firsts (6 quarterbacks taken in the first 12 picks), some questionable decisions, some missed opportunities, and a few teams who hit the bullseye. My initial thoughts on the night are below.

The Bears nailed it

Caleb Williams going to Chicago with the first overall pick was a foregone conclusion. But I absolutely love that they didn’t then use their 9th pick to try and address a hole on the other side of the ball. They went all in on offense by drafting Washington wide receiver Rome Odunze and giving Williams everything he needs to succeed in year 1. He’ll now get to throw to D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and Odunze as a rookie. That’s how it’s done.

Washington did the right thing

I wrote earlier this spring that if Jayden Daniels wasn’t taken in the top 2 picks, someone made a mistake. The Commanders, in desperate need of a franchise quarterback, shrugged off any trade offers and outside noise to finally get the foundational piece to their offense that they’ve been lacking for the longest time.

Drake Maye and the Patriots are not quite a match

I’ve been pretty clear about my thoughts on Drake Maye. He has a lot of things to clean up about his game and his physical attributes are not good enough to overcome his lack of nuance and precision.

The best thing for him would have been to go to a team that had a good offensive system, O-line, and receivers in place around him (like the Vikings, for instance). New England, where all three of those things are big question marks, is not a destination that’s likely to lead to early success.

Perhaps Maye sits a full year behind Jacoby Brissett, giving New England the rest of this year’s draft as well as next year’s to build up the team around him. Maybe they’ll even spend some money in free agency next offseason.

It will be interesting to see how this one plays out.

Chargers go trenches over receiver

You might be asking why the Chargers didn’t target wide receivers Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze given that they lost Mike Williams and traded away Keenan Allen this offseason. But this should hardly be a surprise given that Jim Harbaugh is the head coach of this team. He wants a physical offense that’s built from the inside out. But this draft is also filled with more depth at wide receiver than it is at tackle. I’m sure he and GM Joe Hortiz feel they can still grab a receiver on day 2.

The other angle to consider here is that quarterback Justin Herbert is good enough to make his receivers better than they actually are, as long as he has time. The Chargers have sured up their O-line, and Herbert should be able to benefit, both as a result of the running game and the additional time he has in the pocket.

Malik Nabers was the right decision for the Giants

The Giants’ decision not to use their 6th pick on the quarterback of the future and instead pivot to wide receiver was the right one. There were rumors about trying to trade up with the Patriots to snag Drake Maye (you can probably guess my thoughts on that). When that didn’t happen, it really didn’t make sense to use such valuable draft capital as the 6th overall pick on a developmental quarterback who would have had no one to throw to.

Instead, they got arguably the most dynamic receiver in the draft in Malik Nabers.

The decision not to take a QB is not a committment to Daniel Jones in the long term. He’s still year to year. And in his defense, he hasn’t really had dynamic pass catchers to throw to (or a good O-line) for his entire tenure with the Giants. Let’s see what he can do with Nabers. If he fails, then at least the Giants’ next QB will have a dynamic receiving threat to lean on.

What are the Falcons doing?

I’m sorry, but the Falcons’ decision to draft Michael Penix with the 8th overall pick was indefensible. Not because of the player. I like Penix and had him ranked as my 3rd-best quarterback behind Jayden Daniels. But you just signed Kirk Cousins to a 4-year $180 million contract with $100 million guaranteed (Yes, I know, it’s really a two year contract and Penix likely will take over in year 3).

That said, you just wasted valuable capital (the 8th overall pick) on a player who likely won’t help you until the 2026 season. They could have used that pick instead to add a player who could address a need and help them win now, which is conceivably what they were trying to do by signing Cousins in the first place. And that division is very winnable, mind you.

It’s not like the Falcons have been at the top of their division or conference for the last several years and need to start thinking about a long-term transition plan at quarterback. They’ve failed to win more than 7 games in each of the last 6 seasons. Urgency to make this team a winner in the next 1-2 years should have been the priority.

On top of that, their ability to grab Penix with the 8th pick really wasn’t a surprise. Meaning, they had to know for a while, even before signing Cousins, that he would have been available there. If they were going to go the route of drafting Penix, letting him sit and learn before transitioning the team over to him, why not sign a less expensive stop-gap at quarterback for the 2024 season (e.g. a Jacoby Brissett or a Sam Darnold) instead of a player like Cousins who commanded $100 million guaranteed?

The other bit of irony here is that Penix is probably one of the more NFL-ready QBs in this draft given his age, experience, and traits. He’s not the type of player that would need to sit for a couple of years just to get his legs underneath him.

Either way, the decision-makers in this franchise have had a bad few months. We just recently found out that none of Arthur Blank’s top lieutenants had Bill Belichick in their top-3 for head coaching candidates. Was that the same committee of geniuses involved in this decision? Either way, I can’t help but wonder if Blank is regretting his decision to pass on Belichick for whatever this is.

J.J. McCarthy will thrive in Minnesota

I wrote earlier this week that the Vikings’ decision at quarterback might be the most interesting storyline of the draft. Do they want the physical stud or the system executor?

Unfortuntately, I don’t think we got a clear answer. It appears they were trying to trade up for Drake Maye. When they couldn’t get him, they pretty much waited for McCarthy to fall to them (and then traded up 1 spot to snag him). Who knows what the truth is in terms of who they were actually targeting. Either way, they now have their quarterback of the future, and J.J. McCarthy is in arguably the best position of any of this year’s rookie quarterbacks.

The Jets wisely chose to continue building their offensive line

Offensive linemen are like starting pitchers in baseball. You’ll never go a full season just needing 5.

Aside from Aaron Rodgers going down on the 4th play of the season, the O-line was the biggest issue for the Jets in 2023. GM Joe Douglas made some great moves this offseason, acquiring Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses to play tackle along with John Simpson to play guard. After drafting Penn State tackle Olu Fashanu last night, they have now ensured that their offensive line will likely not be an issue at any point this season.

Some see this as a move targeting the future, but I see it as a win-now move. Newly acquried left tackle Tyron Smith missed 14 games in 2020, 6 games in 2021, 13 in 2022, and 4 more last year. It stands to reason he’ll likely not start all 17 (and potentially 21) games in 2024. Fashanu will play tackle at some point this year.

Perhaps they’ll use him early in the season at guard, helping ease Alijah Vera-Tucker’s transition back from yet another season-ending injury. Either way, it means AVT won’t have to kick out to play tackle in a pinch, and the Jets hopefully won’t have to go through a stretch of the season with questionable blockers protecting Rodgers.

Not to mention, similar to the Chargers, New York can take advantage of the depth at wide receiver on day 2 of the draft (they have the capital to trade back into the second round to get someone). Even if they don’t, Aaron Rodgers is one of the few quarterbacks that can make receivers consistently better than they actually are (see Allen Lazard). He’ll be better able to do that if he has time.

Just about everybody had Bo Nix going to the Broncos

This was a player-team connection that had been rumored for weeks and talked about by just about everyone as a good fit. That’s because Nix truly does make sense for Sean Payton’s system. He’s a quick decision-maker and gets the ball where it needs to go within the structure of the offense. That’s exactly the type of quarterback Payton wants.

Other Thoughts

The Colts’ drafted Laiatu Latu, which means that defensive line is going to be trouble for the rest of the AFC South. They could be a sleeper team this year depending on Anthony Richardson’s health and development.

The Jaguars did a good job of replacing Calvin Ridley by taking LSU’s Brian Thomas. The Lions filled a big hole at cornerback with Terrion Arnold.

The Bills, on the other hand, traded with the Chiefs, the one team that has stood in their way in the AFC for 4 years. Unfortunately for Buffalo, this particular trade enabled K.C. to get much better by selecting speedy wide receiver Xavier Worthy (a player the Bills could have used).

The 49ers’ decision to draft wide receiver Ricky Pearsall at the end of the first round was an interesting one. It all but signals they are going to trade either Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel.

I look forward to seeing how Day 2 shakes out.