Talent is a combination of core competencies and results. Understanding that these posts are focused on QB competencies - results still need to be the proof points for those competencies. You should see great skill resulting in improved on the field production. At the risk of being viewed as negative, I just don't get the Burrow love here and elsewhere.
His numbers have been in decline for 2 seasons. Here are some selections:
*QB Rating - 108.3 to 100.8 to 91
*Approximate Value - 15 to 17 to 12.8 (extrapolated)
*AY/A - 9 to 7.6 to 6.4
*TD% - 6.5 to 5.8 to 4.1
*Comp.% - 70.4 to 68.3 to 66.8
*On Target% - 82.8 to 79.1 to 75.6
*Bad Throw% - 10.7 to 12.9 to 14.7
*IAY/PA - 8.1 to 6.8 to 6.3
This despite elite receivers, an offensive minded HC, and very good protection (Sack % - 8.9 to 6.3 to 6.2) his numbers have declined as his media acclaim has risen.
I just don't see it in the numbers. If you tell me its injuries, that's a reason for a downgrade at his young age. The cold reality is that 2021 keeps getting smaller in the rear view mirror to support these sorts of lofty rankings.
Burrow is another guy here who for me needs to majorly step up in 2024 or should fall significantly down the rankings next year.
Thanks again for reading and for the comment! Not sure I agree about the significance of those numbers being in decline. There are some legitimate things that explain that away. Last year, for instance, he was clearly impacted by that bad calf, no training camp, and barely practicing for the first 4 games of the season. He started to get healthy again and his numbers during the 5 full games he played prior to the season-ending wrist injury were pretty damn good (74.1 comp %, 296 yds per game, 12 TD, 4 INT, 107.0 rating). Not to mention, his 2022 season was pretty damn good too (35-12 TD-INT ratio, 100.8 rating). I wouldn't be concerned about a drop in completion % from 70.4 to 68.3, or a passer rating drop from 108.3 to 100.9.
That said, I rate these quarterbacks first and foremost by what I see on the All-22 (although I try to take stats and advanced metrics into account as well). I try to look at these QBs in terms of the teams/systems they have around them and how each QB would perform if in the same situation. Burrow is able to create more completions despite circumstances (pressure, small windows, etc.) than almost any QB in the league.
If I was going by stats alone, I couldn't make the argument that Patrick Mahomes is the #1 QB in the NFL (which he is on my list). He just had his worst season statistically, including a drop in passer rating by about 13 points to 92.6. Not to mention, if you compare his first 3 full seasons to his last 3, the stats would tell a story of decline (109.3 passer rating vs. 98.9). However, he's a better quarterback overall right now than he was 3 years ago.
But you're not alone in your questioning of Burrow. I've heard this from multiple places, especially recently, that he's somewhat overrated. I wasn't aware of that sentiment until this offseason really. I guess we'll find out a little more this year.
Either way, you might be right. To paraphrase Crash Davis from Bull Durham, I'm just as full of shit as anybody, haha. My opinions are just that.
Over the course of his four years Joe Burrow has put up qbr of
48, 60, 60, 51
Which is roughly similar to Jared Goff
50, 45, 63, 60
This makes them roughly in the 10-20 range.
They each get bonus points for being #1 picks that got their team to a superbowl.
I think there is a confirmation bias with burrow in that he is one of the three “generational” qbs along with Lawrence and Williams of the past few years.
I do know some of this is because he has played through injury, but his bad games don’t seem to count as much as someone like Dak
Qbr isn’t a perfect stat ( I don’t think it captures Jackson’s running threat for instance) but it is more complete than how good as someone looks in their highlights.
Thanks for reading and for the comment! I try to take in everything when evaluating these quarterbacks, from their film to conventional stats to some of the more advanced numbers. But I view what I see on the all-22 as the most important. Each quarterback's numbers are undoubtedly influenced by scheme, protection, pass-catchers, etc., so I try to imagine what each QB would look like if in the same situation. Not a huge fan of what I've seen from the QBR metric in the past (for instance Aaron Rodgers had a 39.3 QBR in 2022 and Zach Wilson had a 36.5 that same year - the two weren't in the same zip code when it came to how they actually played).
What I'll say about Burrow is that while he doesn't have the best physical traits (e.g. arm strength, speed, etc.), he creates completions like few quarterbacks in the league. If he has a terrible O-line, it doesn't matter, his ability to anticipate and process quickly can negate that. If he's facing tight coverage, his timing and accuracy help create completions there as well.
Again, thanks for reading. Keep the comments coming!
Talent is a combination of core competencies and results. Understanding that these posts are focused on QB competencies - results still need to be the proof points for those competencies. You should see great skill resulting in improved on the field production. At the risk of being viewed as negative, I just don't get the Burrow love here and elsewhere.
His numbers have been in decline for 2 seasons. Here are some selections:
*QB Rating - 108.3 to 100.8 to 91
*Approximate Value - 15 to 17 to 12.8 (extrapolated)
*AY/A - 9 to 7.6 to 6.4
*TD% - 6.5 to 5.8 to 4.1
*Comp.% - 70.4 to 68.3 to 66.8
*On Target% - 82.8 to 79.1 to 75.6
*Bad Throw% - 10.7 to 12.9 to 14.7
*IAY/PA - 8.1 to 6.8 to 6.3
This despite elite receivers, an offensive minded HC, and very good protection (Sack % - 8.9 to 6.3 to 6.2) his numbers have declined as his media acclaim has risen.
I just don't see it in the numbers. If you tell me its injuries, that's a reason for a downgrade at his young age. The cold reality is that 2021 keeps getting smaller in the rear view mirror to support these sorts of lofty rankings.
Burrow is another guy here who for me needs to majorly step up in 2024 or should fall significantly down the rankings next year.
Thanks again.
Thanks again for reading and for the comment! Not sure I agree about the significance of those numbers being in decline. There are some legitimate things that explain that away. Last year, for instance, he was clearly impacted by that bad calf, no training camp, and barely practicing for the first 4 games of the season. He started to get healthy again and his numbers during the 5 full games he played prior to the season-ending wrist injury were pretty damn good (74.1 comp %, 296 yds per game, 12 TD, 4 INT, 107.0 rating). Not to mention, his 2022 season was pretty damn good too (35-12 TD-INT ratio, 100.8 rating). I wouldn't be concerned about a drop in completion % from 70.4 to 68.3, or a passer rating drop from 108.3 to 100.9.
That said, I rate these quarterbacks first and foremost by what I see on the All-22 (although I try to take stats and advanced metrics into account as well). I try to look at these QBs in terms of the teams/systems they have around them and how each QB would perform if in the same situation. Burrow is able to create more completions despite circumstances (pressure, small windows, etc.) than almost any QB in the league.
If I was going by stats alone, I couldn't make the argument that Patrick Mahomes is the #1 QB in the NFL (which he is on my list). He just had his worst season statistically, including a drop in passer rating by about 13 points to 92.6. Not to mention, if you compare his first 3 full seasons to his last 3, the stats would tell a story of decline (109.3 passer rating vs. 98.9). However, he's a better quarterback overall right now than he was 3 years ago.
But you're not alone in your questioning of Burrow. I've heard this from multiple places, especially recently, that he's somewhat overrated. I wasn't aware of that sentiment until this offseason really. I guess we'll find out a little more this year.
Either way, you might be right. To paraphrase Crash Davis from Bull Durham, I'm just as full of shit as anybody, haha. My opinions are just that.
Thanks again for the comment!
Thanks again for your thoughtful reply here. Much appreciated.
Over the course of his four years Joe Burrow has put up qbr of
48, 60, 60, 51
Which is roughly similar to Jared Goff
50, 45, 63, 60
This makes them roughly in the 10-20 range.
They each get bonus points for being #1 picks that got their team to a superbowl.
I think there is a confirmation bias with burrow in that he is one of the three “generational” qbs along with Lawrence and Williams of the past few years.
I do know some of this is because he has played through injury, but his bad games don’t seem to count as much as someone like Dak
Qbr isn’t a perfect stat ( I don’t think it captures Jackson’s running threat for instance) but it is more complete than how good as someone looks in their highlights.
Thanks for reading and for the comment! I try to take in everything when evaluating these quarterbacks, from their film to conventional stats to some of the more advanced numbers. But I view what I see on the all-22 as the most important. Each quarterback's numbers are undoubtedly influenced by scheme, protection, pass-catchers, etc., so I try to imagine what each QB would look like if in the same situation. Not a huge fan of what I've seen from the QBR metric in the past (for instance Aaron Rodgers had a 39.3 QBR in 2022 and Zach Wilson had a 36.5 that same year - the two weren't in the same zip code when it came to how they actually played).
What I'll say about Burrow is that while he doesn't have the best physical traits (e.g. arm strength, speed, etc.), he creates completions like few quarterbacks in the league. If he has a terrible O-line, it doesn't matter, his ability to anticipate and process quickly can negate that. If he's facing tight coverage, his timing and accuracy help create completions there as well.
Again, thanks for reading. Keep the comments coming!