Probably the most difficult part of putting together this list was choosing between Joe Burrow and Josh Allen. Despite being two very different types of quarterbacks, they’re both so close, and I go back and forth all the time.
However, sometimes the best ability is availability, and that ends up being the tie-breaker for me as we stand here today. I have to give the nod to Allen based merely on Burrow’s injury history.
He missed the final 6 games of the 2020 season after tearing up his knee.
His appendix ruptured prior to the 2022 season, and even though he didn’t miss any games, it took him a few weeks and some early-season losses to right the ship.
He suffered a calf strain early in training camp last year, and the practice time missed led to an awful first quarter of the season for the Bengals offense, as well as a 1-3 start.
Then a torn ligament in his right wrist ended his season with 7 games left on the schedule.
Some of those injuries were flukes or weren’t anything we need to attribute to Burrow’s ability to stay healthy in general. But there’s enough in there to keep even the most optimistic Bengals fan slightly concerned.
Alright, enough with the injury talk. Let’s get into who Burrow is as a quarterback. His ability to succeed from the pocket is exceptional. In fact, he’s probably the best pocket passer in the NFL.
The timing and anticipation that Burrow plays with is what always stands out most on film, and it’s rooted in his ability to recognize and process coverage quickly.
Take this 3rd-and-10 during the first quarter of the 2022 AFC Divisional Playoffs, for instance. The Bills were initially showing a cover-1 blitz:
But they would end up rushing four and spinning out into a 2-high look at the snap:
The disguise didn’t matter. Burrow processed it quickly post-snap and immediately found the hole in the coverage for the first down:
Not only did Burrow find it, he delivered this ball at the top of his drop with great anticipation. Look where his receiver was in his route right after Burrow made his decision and had just started his throwing motion:
There’s no defense for the perfectly timed and perfectly thrown ball.
Here’s another example from one of the biggest moments in Burrow’s career. This was from the 2021 AFC Divisional Playoffs against the Titans. With just 20 seconds remaining and the game tied, Cincinnati needed to get into field-goal range. The Titans would spin out into 2-man coverage at the snap and provide help over top of Ja’Marr Chase:
Burrow recognized the coverage instantly, knew Chase had a lateral-breaking route that could beat 2-man, and fired away. Look at where Chase was in his route when Burrow had already started his motion:
Chase was still stemming upfield, and would even take a step inside to get the cornerback trailing him to move in that direction before breaking to the outside. Even with all of that going on during Burrow’s motion, he still delivered this ball to a perfect spot on the sideline:
In addition to this being a huge moment, Burrow had already been sacked 9(!!!) times to that point in the game. Most quarterbacks, even the great ones, crumble under that type of pressure. But take a look from the end zone angle. Do you see any panic in Burrow?
None whatsoever. He kept his head down the middle of the field during his drop to read the safeties and then calmly delivered a perfect ball to set up the game-winning field goal.
Burrow’s timing and accuracy also allow him to complete passes in the tightest of windows. And that’s what quarterbacks tend to see in the most critical situations, like in the red zone and on third down.
Here’s an example in the low red zone from a year ago against the 49ers:
Not a ton of space for that ball, huh?
Here’s another example from the 2022 season on a 3rd-and-11 against the Chiefs. This completion would ultimately seal the win for the Bengals. Blink and you might not be able to see the tiny opening his receiver had:
Also notice that Burrow delivered that ball with a pass rusher right in his face. And this gets us to another key aspect of Burrow’s game. He can throw out of any type of pocket.
This was a trait that you could even see during his rookie season. Below, watch him make an accurate throw out of a collapsing pocket where the space he had to operate was no bigger than a phone booth:
Aside from his ability to make throws out of any type of pocket, Burrow also does a great job of moving within the pocket and finding the soft spots from which to throw:
He also has some sneaky athleticism and enough mobility to evade pressure and either scramble for first downs or make throws outside of structure:
Burrow doesn’t have a cannon for an arm. And he isn’t Lamar Jackson as a runner. He’s probably the least physically talented of the top-10 passers on my list. But he specializes in the every-down throws. He thrives on sticking the ball into small windows in critical situations.
Many of his best throws, like the ones shown above, tend to look nondescript at first glance. On the all-22, though, you can see that they’re special and regularly occurring.
If Burrow can stay healthy, he’ll get the Bengals back to where they were in 2022.
Check out the rest of the rankings here:
#32 Bo Nix (Denver Broncos)
#31 Drake Maye (New England Patriots)
#30 J.J. McCarthy (Minnesota Vikings)
#29 Gardner Minshew (Las Vegas Raiders)
#28 Will Levis (Tennessee Titans)
#27 Deshaun Watson (Cleveland Browns)
#26 Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis Colts)
#25 Bryce Young (Carolina Panthers)
#24 Daniel Jones (New York Giants)
#23 Jayden Daniels (Washington Commanders)
#22 Caleb Williams (Chicago Bears)
#21 Geno Smith (Seattle Seahawks)
#20 Russell Wilson (Pittsburgh Steelers)
#19 Derek Carr (New Orleans Saints)
#18 Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
#17 Kyler Murray (Arizona Cardinals)
#16 Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars)
#15 Jared Goff (Detroit Lions)
#14 Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins)
#13 Kirk Cousins (Atlanta Falcons)
#12 Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles)
#11 Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers)
#10 Jordan Love (Green Bay Packers)
#9 Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys)
#8 C.J. Stroud (Houston Texans)
#7 Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers)
#6 Aaron Rodgers (New York Jets)
#5 Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams)
#4 Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens)
#3 Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals)
#2 Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills)
#1 Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs)
Talent is a combination of core competencies and results. Understanding that these posts are focused on QB competencies - results still need to be the proof points for those competencies. You should see great skill resulting in improved on the field production. At the risk of being viewed as negative, I just don't get the Burrow love here and elsewhere.
His numbers have been in decline for 2 seasons. Here are some selections:
*QB Rating - 108.3 to 100.8 to 91
*Approximate Value - 15 to 17 to 12.8 (extrapolated)
*AY/A - 9 to 7.6 to 6.4
*TD% - 6.5 to 5.8 to 4.1
*Comp.% - 70.4 to 68.3 to 66.8
*On Target% - 82.8 to 79.1 to 75.6
*Bad Throw% - 10.7 to 12.9 to 14.7
*IAY/PA - 8.1 to 6.8 to 6.3
This despite elite receivers, an offensive minded HC, and very good protection (Sack % - 8.9 to 6.3 to 6.2) his numbers have declined as his media acclaim has risen.
I just don't see it in the numbers. If you tell me its injuries, that's a reason for a downgrade at his young age. The cold reality is that 2021 keeps getting smaller in the rear view mirror to support these sorts of lofty rankings.
Burrow is another guy here who for me needs to majorly step up in 2024 or should fall significantly down the rankings next year.
Thanks again.
Over the course of his four years Joe Burrow has put up qbr of
48, 60, 60, 51
Which is roughly similar to Jared Goff
50, 45, 63, 60
This makes them roughly in the 10-20 range.
They each get bonus points for being #1 picks that got their team to a superbowl.
I think there is a confirmation bias with burrow in that he is one of the three “generational” qbs along with Lawrence and Williams of the past few years.
I do know some of this is because he has played through injury, but his bad games don’t seem to count as much as someone like Dak
Qbr isn’t a perfect stat ( I don’t think it captures Jackson’s running threat for instance) but it is more complete than how good as someone looks in their highlights.