Ranking the NFL Starting Quarterbacks

#9 Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys)

This might be the most controversial QB ranking on this list (at least to some of you). But we need to start giving more respect to Dak Prescott. I can’t understand why he catches so much flak, aside from the fact that it’s fun to tweak the Cowboy fan.

Prescott has been a really good quarterback since Mike McCarthy came to town in 2020. If you remove the 2022 season (when Dak fractured the thumb on his throwing hand) his numbers under McCarthy have been outstanding. He’s completed 69% of his passes for 285 yards per game with an 82-23 TD-INT ratio and a 104.2 passer rating across those seasons.

Yes I’m doing a little cherry picking, but with good reason. Prescott’s accuracy in 2022 was absolutely impacted by his injured thumb, which clearly wasn’t right when he returned to the lineup after surgery and a 5-game absence. His bad throw % shot up, according to pro-football-reference, and you could just tell on the All-22 that he wasn’t putting the ball where he wanted to as frequently. That inevitably impacted his decision-making as well.

I’ll also give him the benefit of the doubt since he was such a different player in the season before and after the injury, meaning 2022 had to be an anomaly as a result of an isolated fluke injury.

Watching Prescott on film, what stands out most is the improvement he’s been able to continually make. From his third season to his eighth, he really has gotten better year-to-year (removing the two seasons with significant injuries).

Perhaps most importantly, his anticipation skills have improved substantially. He used to be a quarterback that needed to see it to throw it. But in recent years, that hasn’t quite been the case as much:

Look how early in his receiver’s route that Dak made his decision and started his throwing motion there:

Prescott’s ball placement has improved as well, culminating in an MVP-caliber 2023 season in which he led all quarterbacks in on-target throwing percentage (Pro-Football-Reference).

But ball placement isn’t just about accuracy and on-target throws. Those elements are obviously included, but ball placement is also about understanding coverage and making the right type of throw based on where nearby defenders are.

Below is a great of example of Prescott putting each of those elements together last season.

On this play, the Cowboys had a double-post called against quarters coverage. The key for Dallas was to get the field safety, Quandre Diggs, to bite on the inside post, opening up a window for CeeDee Lamb:

Off of a play-action fake, Prescott immediately got his eyes down the middle of the field to the inside post. He knew exactly what he was doing and got Diggs to bite just enough:

The window was created for the post on the outside. But even with the opening, Prescott still had to worry about the cornerback undercutting Lamb since they were in the red zone and he could take a chance getting underneath the route. So Prescott put this ball up high in a place where only Lamb could get it:

Great awareness. Perfect throw.

Dak was in total control last season. He also showed improved second-reaction ability and added more than 200 yards on the ground for the first time since 2019.

I’m guessing there are some questions out there as to why I’d have Dak ahead of a player like Jordan Love, for instance. Love is more physically talented and showed the ability to master the nuances of the position last season. Not to mention, his Packers blew out the Cowboys in the playoffs. So shouldn’t he be higher on the list than Prescott?

First, let me say that there is nothing I care about less when comparing quarterbacks than head-to-head wins. It sounds cliche to say football is a team sport, but that’s exactly what it is and that’s exactly what head-to-head wins are a reflection of. And I know saying “it sounds cliche” sounds cliche, but I don’t care. I am what I am.

The other point I’ll make is that this list is about who these quarterbacks are right now. Love’s ceiling is higher than Prescott’s, and one day (maybe soon) he’ll surpass him. But right now, I have to give Prescott the nod considering he’s done it for much longer and because he was actually better than Love in several critical areas last season.

Prescott was more accurate than Love on short passes (0-9 yards), intermediate passes (10-19 yards), and deep passes (20+ yards), according to PFF.

Prescott also had a better passer rating under pressure, against the blitz, in a clean pocket, and against a normal pass rush.

On top of all that, Prescott had the best passer rating in the league on non-play-action passes. Remember, play-action often simplifies things for the quarterback, defines the reads and throws, influences the defense, and generally makes life easier. Non-play-action passes put more on the quarterback to quickly process and make several right decisions. The fact that Prescott was the best in the NFL on these types of passes is telling.

At the end of the day, Prescott has established himself as a quality passer in the NFL and has performed at a high level for a long enough period of time to be considered a top-10 quarterback.

Check out the rest of the rankings here:
#32 Bo Nix (Denver Broncos)
#31 Drake Maye (New England Patriots)
#30 J.J. McCarthy (Minnesota Vikings)
#29 Gardner Minshew (Las Vegas Raiders)
#28 Will Levis (Tennessee Titans)
#27 Deshaun Watson (Cleveland Browns)
#26 Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis Colts)
#25 Bryce Young (Carolina Panthers)
#24 Daniel Jones (New York Giants)
#23 Jayden Daniels (Washington Commanders)
#22 Caleb Williams (Chicago Bears)
#21 Geno Smith (Seattle Seahawks)
#20 Russell Wilson (Pittsburgh Steelers)
#19 Derek Carr (New Orleans Saints)
#18 Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
#17 Kyler Murray (Arizona Cardinals)
#16 Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars)
#15 Jared Goff (Detroit Lions)
#14 Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins)
#13 Kirk Cousins (Atlanta Falcons)
#12 Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles)
#11 Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers)
#10 Jordan Love (Green Bay Packers)
#9 Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys)
#8 C.J. Stroud (Houston Texans)
#7 Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers)
#6 Aaron Rodgers (New York Jets)
#5 Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams)
#4 Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens)
#3 Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals)
#2 Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills)
#1 Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs)