Ranking the NFL Starting Quarterbacks

#1 Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs)

In the least-shocking ranking of my Top-32 starting quarterbacks list, Patrick Mahomes occupies the #1 spot. It’s hard for anyone to make a good argument that he shouldn’t be there given the combination of his ability and his accomplishments.

In 6 seasons, he’s already won 2 MVPs and 3 Super Bowls. And when compared to the most accomplished postseason quarterbacks in NFL history, he stands alone through his first 18 playoff games:

Mahomes can do it all. He is probably already the best second-reaction quarterback in the history of the game. No one else has come close to his ability to evade pressure, buy time, force defenders to have to cover for what seems like an eternity, and then make soul-crushing throws at the last possible moment:

Defenses can never sleep on him as a runner, even if he’s playing on a bum ankle like in Super Bowl LVII. In fact, the game-winning scores in each of the last two Super Bowls were set up by key Mahomes scrambles:

Needless to say, Mahomes has unique play-making ability. It’s a consistent form of offense for the Chiefs.

But despite the success he’s had to this point in his career, Mahomes is seldom given credit for how good and nuanced of a pocket passer he is.

It should have become crystal clear after his high ankle sprain during the 2022 playoffs, which forced him to play almost exclusively from the pocket during the AFC Championship Game. All he did that night was complete 29 of 43 passes for 326 yards, 2 TDs, and 0 INTs.

This play from last year’s Super Bowl is just one of many you can point to as an example of his pocket proficiency. This was a 2nd-and-10 with just under 10 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter. The 49ers were initially showing single-high man-free coverage but would spin out to Tampa-2 zone at the snap:

Mahomes immediately got his eyes to the middle of the field and then glanced to the right where he could see Tashaun Gipson racing deep to become a cover-2 safety:

Mahomes didn’t like the corner-flat route combination to that side, so he came all the way back to the left sideline to work the same route combination to the boundary. He looked to the flat-route first to get the cover-2 corner to jump him. That created a huge void for Justin Watson’s corner route:

Mahomes did all of this within the natural timing and rhythm of the play, calmly hitting Watson in stride for 25 yards:

Dealing with post-snap disguise, reading sideline-to-sideline, manipulating defenders, and then making an accurate throw on time. It doesn’t get much better than that.

Mahomes’ great ball placement and accuracy are also key features of his game. He’s easily among the best in the league at everything from completing passes in tight windows to making touch throws:

Mahomes has been calm in the face of pressure throughout his career. And I mean that about every type of pressure. We’re talking blitz pressure, collapsing-pocket pressure, and the pressure of huge moments.

He already has 5 fourth-quarter comebacks in the playoffs and 6 game-winning drives (including 4th-quarter comebacks in all three Super Bowl wins).

He brought the Chiefs back from a 10-point 4th-quarter deficit in Super Bowl LIV with two late touchdown passes.

After trailing by 10 at the half of Super Bowl LVII against the Eagles, he completed 13 of 14 passes for 93 yards and 2 touchdowns.

In last year’s Super Bowl, he completed 16 of 22 passes for 154 yards and a touchdown in the 4th quarter and overtime (He completed all 8 of his passes in overtime and added 27 yards on the ground).

Against blitz pressure, he has a 116.0 passer rating since becoming the Chiefs’ starter in 2018 (Pro-Football-Reference). No quarterback who’s played at least 40 games during that span is better:

That last play was a 3rd-and-6 from overtime of last year’s Super Bowl. The 49ers brought cover-0 pressure. Mahomes actually saw it pre-snap and changed the protection to account for it. Then he stood firm in the pocket and made a perfect throw under duress. He makes it look so easy.

I’ve mentioned multiple times during this Top-32 series how important it is to be able to create completions regardless of circumstances. That’s what being a great NFL quarterback is all about. And that’s what Mahomes is about.

Tight coverage? Doesn’t matter, complete the pass. Great disguise by the defense? So what. Process it and complete the pass. Pressure in your face? Grow some stones and complete the pass. Flushed from the pocket? Save the play and find a completion.

No one’s open? Scramble for a first down.

There are more physically-gifted throwers than Mahomes. There are better runners as well. But no one can beat a defense in as many ways as he can.

Check out the rest of the rankings here:
#32 Bo Nix (Denver Broncos)
#31 Drake Maye (New England Patriots)
#30 J.J. McCarthy (Minnesota Vikings)
#29 Gardner Minshew (Las Vegas Raiders)
#28 Will Levis (Tennessee Titans)
#27 Deshaun Watson (Cleveland Browns)
#26 Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis Colts)
#25 Bryce Young (Carolina Panthers)
#24 Daniel Jones (New York Giants)
#23 Jayden Daniels (Washington Commanders)
#22 Caleb Williams (Chicago Bears)
#21 Geno Smith (Seattle Seahawks)
#20 Russell Wilson (Pittsburgh Steelers)
#19 Derek Carr (New Orleans Saints)
#18 Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
#17 Kyler Murray (Arizona Cardinals)
#16 Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars)
#15 Jared Goff (Detroit Lions)
#14 Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins)
#13 Kirk Cousins (Atlanta Falcons)
#12 Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles)
#11 Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers)
#10 Jordan Love (Green Bay Packers)
#9 Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys)
#8 C.J. Stroud (Houston Texans)
#7 Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers)
#6 Aaron Rodgers (New York Jets)
#5 Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams)
#4 Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens)
#3 Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals)
#2 Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills)
#1 Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs)