Ranking the NFL Starting Quarterbacks

#14 Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins)

One word comes to mind when I watch Tua Tagovailoa play: “Anticipation.” Tua is one of the the best, if not the best, anticipation throwers in the game:

Take another look at that play and notice where his receiver was in his route when Tua made his decision and had just started his throwing motion:

Ridiculous. And these types of throws are all over his tape. Here’s another example:

Again, here’s the moment where Tua had just started his motion:

Timing and rhythm are so essential to Tua’s game. In fact, he had the quickest time to throw in the NFL last season and was 5th in 2022, according to Pro Football Focus.

Going back to that 2022 season, not only was Tua’s average time to throw so fast, his intended air yards per attempt was 9.5, good for 2nd most in the NFL. So the speed of his processing and release weren’t tied to him just quickly getting rid of the ball underneath. He was pushing the ball downfield.

Mike McDaniel’s system is the perfect match for Tua because he uses so much motion. That helps to keep defenders from jamming or disrupting routes at the line, which keeps the timing of the play in tact. It also helps make the defense more predictable and “vanilla” with their coverages, allowing route concepts to more easily break down the defense and Tua to take advantage with his timing and anticipation.

The end result has been great for the Dolphins. Tua has the second-highest passer rating in the NFL since McDaniel came to town.

So why is Tua not higher on this list? One of the main reasons is that it’s hard to separate McDaniel’s offense and the talent in this passing game from Tua’s own abilities. Especially since he didn’t really blow anyone away in the two seasons before McDaniel (and Tyreek Hill).

Don’t get me wrong; not every quarterback can do what Tua has over the last two seasons. For instance, the Dolphins offense was absolutely not as good in the 6 games that Tua didn’t play in or finish in 2022 (just 18.5 points per game).

Much of the Dolphins’ success on offense has been a result of McDaniel taking advantage of Tua’s specific skillset. Namely that anticipation coupled with his accuracy as a passer.

That said, Tua’s ability to perform when the system isn’t working perfectly around him was not great in 2023. He went from the 4th highest-rated passer in a clean pocket to the 35th-highest-rated passer when under pressure (PFF).

This is also reflected in how Tua performed when he had to hold onto the ball. He had the 5th-best passer rating when getting passes off in 2.5 seconds or less last season. But when he held onto the ball for more than 2.5 seconds, he dropped to 19th in the NFL (PFF).

Defenses seemed to find ways to disrupt the timing of the passing game towards the end of the season as well. You could see it in the Chiefs’ playoff win over the Dolphins.

Just take a look at this play. The Chiefs started in a 2-shell look but then rotated to single-high just before the snap, making it seem like Tyreek Hill would be in a 1-on-1 at the bottom of the screen. Then they spun back out to a 2-deep look post-snap. Tua still looked at Hill first despite two defenders accounting for him, realized he was taken away, then had to adjust and move to his 2nd and 3rd receivers instead of getting the ball out at the top of his drop. He tried to get the ball to the dig over the middle, but with the pocket getting pushed inside, he couldn’t step into his throw and the ball sailed. The result was an interception:

Regardless of the pressure inside, there was an open receiver over the middle late in the play and the result was a turnover. You can blame it on his size, footwork, ability to make throws in confined spaces, or something else. That’s just something that can’t happen, especially in a playoff game. And that’s the type of mistake that the upper-echelon quarterbacks rarely make.

There were several other examples like this from last year, particularly later in the season.

What’s notable is that this issue didn’t really exist during the 2022 season. Tua didn’t have quite the drop off late in the play that he did in 2023. He also had the 2nd-highest passer rating in the NFL when under pressure that year.

This begs the question: Did the rest of the league figure something out about McDaniel and Tua? Or was Tua less comfortable hanging in the pocket later in the play and pushing the ball downfield after all the concussions in 2022? His intended air yards per pass attempt dropped by nearly 2 full yards from 2022 to 2023, so maybe there was less of an emphasis on attacking downfield if his first read or two weren’t open?

Whatever the reason, I need to see more of him performing late in the down on a consistent basis before I move him higher up on this list.

Check out the rest of the rankings here:
#32 Bo Nix (Denver Broncos)
#31 Drake Maye (New England Patriots)
#30 J.J. McCarthy (Minnesota Vikings)
#29 Gardner Minshew (Las Vegas Raiders)
#28 Will Levis (Tennessee Titans)
#27 Deshaun Watson (Cleveland Browns)
#26 Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis Colts)
#25 Bryce Young (Carolina Panthers)
#24 Daniel Jones (New York Giants)
#23 Jayden Daniels (Washington Commanders)
#22 Caleb Williams (Chicago Bears)
#21 Geno Smith (Seattle Seahawks)
#20 Russell Wilson (Pittsburgh Steelers)
#19 Derek Carr (New Orleans Saints)
#18 Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
#17 Kyler Murray (Arizona Cardinals)
#16 Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars)
#15 Jared Goff (Detroit Lions)
#14 Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins)
#13 Kirk Cousins (Atlanta Falcons)
#12 Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles)
#11 Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers)
#10 Jordan Love (Green Bay Packers)
#9 Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys)
#8 C.J. Stroud (Houston Texans)
#7 Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers)
#6 Aaron Rodgers (New York Jets)
#5 Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams)
#4 Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens)
#3 Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals)
#2 Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills)
#1 Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs)