Ranking the NFL Starting Quarterbacks
#16 Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars)
Trevor Lawrence’s young NFL career can be broken down into 3 distinct phases.
The first was his rookie season, which was a disaster. Lawrence was put in a terrible situation with the end result being a fired head coach and the Jaguars “earning” the #1 overall pick for the second season in a row. Here’s a good look at how that year went:
Phase 2 was the next year-and-a-half plus, when Lawrence bounced back from the adversity of that rookie season and appeared to be on the brink of becoming one of the next great young QBs in the league:
Phase 3 was Weeks 14-18 of the 2023 season. Lawrence played through what initially appeared to be a gruesome season-ending injury. He was clearly compromised, and this impacted both his physical performance and his decision-making:
His numbers during each of those phases tell the story better than I can:
Given the terrible situation Lawrence was put in during his rookie season and the fact that he was clearly impacted by his injury at the end of 2023, that middle phase appears to be the best representation of what Lawrence can do.
But, is that it?
Given his attributes, I’d like to believe he can do more. Lawrence is an offensive coordinator’s dream. He’s 6’6”. He’s got a strong arm (though not a gun) and can make every type of throw. He has the ability to use his legs to either buy time or pick up yards (964 rushing yards in 3 seasons).
He’s shown the ability to play with poise and handle adversity (see his 27-point comeback playoff win where he fired 4 first-half interceptions). He’s shown good coverage recognition and command at the line of scrimmage. He has all the makings of the next great young quarterback.
My fear, though, is that what we’ve seen is close to the best that Lawrence can be. Because surprisingly, he appears to be a quarterback that needs things to work around him. And that’s especially evident against pressure.
It doesn’t matter if it’s against a 4-man rush or a blitz. To this point in his career, Lawrence has performed poorly when pocket conditions aren’t perfect and when the defense is in attack-mode:
Those numbers are ugly.
And this is one of the most critical areas of quarterbacking. It separates the good ones from the greats. To be a top-tier signal caller, you have to be able to function in a collapsing or muddied pocket. You have to be a quarterback that defensive coordinators fear blitzing. The last thing any defense should want to do is sacrifice men in coverage against you.
Lawrence has not been that type of quarterback to date. Will he ever be? He’s started 52 NFL games already, which means we’re steadily approaching the point where who he is as a quarterback is uncomfortably close to who he can be as a quarterback.
Check out the rest of the rankings here:
#32 Bo Nix (Denver Broncos)
#31 Drake Maye (New England Patriots)
#30 J.J. McCarthy (Minnesota Vikings)
#29 Gardner Minshew (Las Vegas Raiders)
#28 Will Levis (Tennessee Titans)
#27 Deshaun Watson (Cleveland Browns)
#26 Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis Colts)
#25 Bryce Young (Carolina Panthers)
#24 Daniel Jones (New York Giants)
#23 Jayden Daniels (Washington Commanders)
#22 Caleb Williams (Chicago Bears)
#21 Geno Smith (Seattle Seahawks)
#20 Russell Wilson (Pittsburgh Steelers)
#19 Derek Carr (New Orleans Saints)
#18 Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
#17 Kyler Murray (Arizona Cardinals)
#16 Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars)
#15 Jared Goff (Detroit Lions)
#14 Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins)
#13 Kirk Cousins (Atlanta Falcons)
#12 Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles)
#11 Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers)
#10 Jordan Love (Green Bay Packers)
#9 Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys)
#8 C.J. Stroud (Houston Texans)
#7 Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers)
#6 Aaron Rodgers (New York Jets)
#5 Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams)
#4 Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens)
#3 Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals)
#2 Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills)
#1 Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs)
Our biases easily allow us to anchor to excuses that upon deeper reflection over time, are flawed. The entire Trevor Lawrence "first year doesn't count" excuse is one example in my view. It's based solely on the fact that he was so overhyped by so many as the obvious #1 selection and "a generational talent" that the entire media industrial complex quickly coalesced around Meyer as the problem, rather than facing their own incorrect assessment that was apparent out of the gate.
If Lawrence went #9, for example, you wouldn't hear of Meyer today. But, he went #1 and a narrative was quickly spun to alleviate the necessity of uttering the four most difficult words to say - "I was wrong about.. " That proved especially easy after the Zach Smith and Chris Doyle debacles from Meyer. The media hated Meyer, and went gunning for him from Day 1. Lawrence was the prime beneficiary of those efforts, and those benefits continue to be paid.
History teaches if we care to look. One frequent criticism of Meyer in 2021 was that he was too "uninvolved" with the team - deferring to his Coordinators too much, particularly on offense, not flying with the team and hanging out in Columbus. "Where was Meyer?" was a frequent inquiry. Per media reports at the time, OC Darrell Bevell ran the entire offensive show...including Lawrence. So much so, that ownership quickly named Bevell Interim Head Coach when Meyer was sent packing after only 13 weeks.
So how did Meyer have such an enormous impact over so little time that we still trot out today when discussing "Trevor" as the media is so fond of calling him? Meyer was hardly around and not for long...yet, an excuse was crafted that fed the bias demons swirling in the media's heads. It stuck...it was all Urban's fault and it was all just too easy.
More than two years later with supposed quarterback whisperer Doug Pederson, and Lawrence sits at a pedestrian #16 as Pederson's seat grows warmer. As Bill Rutherford, the Princeton academic recruiter in Risky Business would say about Lawrence, "your stats are very respectable...you've done some solid work here...but it's not quite #1 now is it?"
The question remains, when does the statute of limitations run on the Meyer excuse and we start viewing Lawrence by his record alone?